Confidence in the Heat's Ability to Make History

So, I was clearly wrong about the Heat winning in 6 or less. The deck is stacked against them right now, and they haven't oozed the confidence that they have in the past. However, San Antonio knows it would be a grave mistake to think they have this in the bag. They are drawing on last year's experience and reliving the Ray Allen shot over and over again to motivate themselves.

If any team in history has the talent to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, it is this Miami Heat team. Some incredible performances from Wade, LeBron, and Bosh can really make things happen. The Spurs have had the benefit of those incredible performances in Games 3 and 4.

Winning tonight will be huge for the Heat's confidence. They will feel great coming home and needing to win to get to a Game 7 to determine the fate of their three-peat. The prospects of beating San Antonio three consecutive games and twice on the road are really slim, but this team has relied on sheer talent to win games and to dig deep and I don't expect them to crumble.

As much as it has pained me to watch the Heat get destroyed over the past two games, I have kept watching until the very last minute because I know how quickly they can turn things around for the better. That's the joy of watching this Heat team. They can do anything. I hate to quote Kevin Garnett, but "anything is possible."

LeBron Will Rise to the Task

Tonight, after all the backlash against LeBron, he's going to do what he always does when his back is against the wall and have a legendary performance. I don't expect it to quite reach Game 6 Boston levels, but he is going to be super-aggressive (and hopefully, super-hydrated as well) and really make his mark on this game. It should be a close game, but I think Miami will get the much-coveted split tonight. In the 2-2-1-1-1 format that the NBA finally switched back to for the Finals, home court advantage is even more important. Miami really won't want to go home in a 2-0 hole, where the Spurs can steal a close game and then come home for Game 5 to finish them off. Consequently, you can expect the Big Three to be incredibly aggressive tonight on defense. They're going to try to smother Danny Green, and make sure they're chasing him off the line at all time. While it would be nice if Bosh could play better defense on Duncan, I think the Heat are content to let him get his 25-10 stats as long as the three point shooters are kept in check and Parker isn't going nuts creating easy dump-offs after his drives.

Tonight's game should be a tight one because the Spurs don't often get complacent (especially after last year's Finals debacle for them) like the Heat are prone to do when their backs aren't against the wall. But, I expect Miami to snag a game tonight and win Game 3 on an emotionally-charged home court in a couple days.

With no Lance Stephenson antics, no A/C failures, and no other silly distractions from the great basketball being played, the rest of this series should be exactly what it has been billed as...a hotly (no pun intended) contested match-up of two NBA teams who will already be known as some of the best teams in league history.

Side Note: We're going to have a Super Mario Chalmers sighting. Less turnovers, more high-arcing threes.

Cramps and Stupid Tweets

Twitter was ablaze with baseless hatred and vitriol spewed toward LeBron, as usual, after last night's sweltering heat and resultant cramps. LeBron has had problems with cramps in the past, such as during the game in the 2012 Finals against OKC. If you remember that, you'll think of LeBron limping back onto the court and nailing a dagger three. If you don't, you might want to watch it again:



Of course, no one mentions this when they talk about LeBron not having grit and not fighting through pain. You want to compare other guys limping over and taking free throws (which don't require jumping, or moving, by the way) while hurt, but not compare LeBron to himself two years ago. Trust me, if there was any way his body would let him continue, he would have. In fact, he already was doing so after several cramps earlier in the game. He has quadriceps the size of a horse's and when they fail and start uncontrollably spasm-ing, it's not fun. This isn't an issue of playing through pain; it's an issue of simply not being able to continue in a way that helps his team. Risking further injury in that ridiculous environment when he was clearly dehydrated and exhausted would not have been heroic. It would have been idiotic. Spoelstra and the training staff instantly told him he could not continue; otherwise, he would have been on the floor stretching it out, pounding Gatorade, and taking potassium pills or other sources of electrolytes.

Plain and simple, the Heat should have won Game 1. This isn't to say they definitely would have, but they dominated the game up through that point, and things only changed when LeBron came out. Let's answer a couple common criticisms from last night, through the lens of dumb trolling tweets:

1. Kobe injury comparisons -

Yes, Kobe shot free throws after tearing his Achilles. Not a huge deal; if LeBron needed to do that, he definitely could have and would have. He's shot free throws with his left hand before. He has played through pain and cramps before, which by the way, are completely different. Did he need to be carried off the court? Probably not. But, his teammates didn't know what was wrong necessarily and there is no badge of honor associated with walking off the court on your own volition when you could risk further injury with a cramping and spasming muscle. It's just stupid. If you want to talk about something stupid, let's talk about Paul Pierce's dramatic return from the locker room in a wheelchair.

Maybe Lebron should watch Kobe shoot two free throws and walk off the court with a torn Achilles before he gets carried off the court again
— Josh Mobley (@Josh_Mobley) June 6, 2014

The bottom line here is that the comparison is stupid. Here's a comparison: Kobe sat out this season. LeBron is in the Finals, again.

2. "The heat affected both teams equally."

This heat analyst is a jackass. Both teams played with the AC off lmao wtf. You act like the spurs had AC
— Persian Amir (@AmirLakersFan24) June 6, 2014

Well, thank you for your in-depth analysis! The simple fact for anyone who knows anything about basketball is that the Spurs are much deeper team and that is their strength. Popovich plays rotations just like the one he played in Game 1 that rest his Big Three and rely on the supporting cast to do the rest. The Heat were constructed as a top-heavy team that relies primarily on heavy minutes and contributions from Wade, James, and Bosh. They got that contribution, but only for 33 minutes.

3. Michael Jordan played in the "flu" game and other people have played injured.

Yes, Jordan's flu game was impressive. Do I think LeBron could have done it given the opportunity? Definitely. How many games has LeBron missed for injury or illness that were not preventive maintenance in the past few season? Not many. Definitely less than Jordan. DEFINITELY less than Kobe.

Jordan played a game with the flu. Isaiah played a game with one leg. Magic played games with HIV. But LeBron can't play with a cramp? Ok
— Hall of Fame (@HOFSportsTalk) June 6, 2014

LeBron has played through cramps before, and done so in a meaningful way to win a game in the Finals...don't forget that. He also frequently rolls his ankle or hurts his back or a number of other ailments and plays through it without any complaint. He is the most durable player in the league and has proven his grit time and time again.

Here's him playing through back pain:

          Here's him dropping 33 on the Pacers after a bad ankle sprain:

Here's him coming back from the same injury (in air-conditioning this time) to spark the rally to win a Playoff game this year:

 Almost forgot this one...here's him dropping 61 on the Bobcats with a broken nose:

 And, his own flu game...granted, much less important:

 

You know what's better than playing through pain and other circumstances? Being superhuman, never missing games, and almost never getting hurt. That's what LeBron gives you. And, when he does get hurt, he plays through it.

4. "LeBron cramped up, but no one else did."

@NBA why did lebron cramp, but no one else? #therealquestion
— Mark Shadden (@MarkShadden1) June 6, 2014

Here's a suggestion why that might be the case...he is more athletic, relies on that athleticism for his game, and uses it more than any other player on the floor. He's not Mr. Fundamental like Duncan...he does absolutely EVERYTHING on both sides of the ball. Leads the team in assists, points, and rebounds on almost any given night while being their best defensive player. He guards Parker, Green, Leonard, and Duncan. He is guarded by Diaw and Leonard. I think it's fair to say he exerts a considerable amount more energy than anyone on the floor. I'm sure if you measured how many calories he was burning out there, he would be putting everyone else to shame just like he does by any other statistical measure. There are no excuses for him, and he isn't looking for any. The Heat still could have won, but this just put another stumbling block in their way (and a big one). The hate he gets for it is crazy.

You know what LeBron James never did? Leave the sport of basketball in his prime to play another sport that he was pretty terrible at. Jordan is celebrated for that, but if LeBron went off to play football for a year (which he would instantly be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at), he would be absolutely vilified for it...let alone if he went to play minor league baseball. I don't mean this to criticize Jordan, but merely to draw a comparison between the type of media and Internet criticism that LeBron is subjected to. Yes, he has brought some of it upon himself by opening up his life to the media and being a playful personality. When you have your own app about you, you're kind of asking for it.

The simple fact is that LeBron gets way too much criticism, and it's just stupid. He's the best basketball player in the world right now, and he is making a legitimate run at being the best ever. You said he's not clutch? You've already been proven wrong. (Yes, he did have a period where everyone saying he wasn't clutch became a self-fulfilling prophecy and made him less clutch; that period is over.) Yes, he passes sometimes (to wide-open, great shooters) when he should just selfishly assert his own dominance. That's better than missing on a forced shot like Kobe is so fond of doing.










Anyone talking about his cramps has never played a sport in their life, or at least hasn't played it hard enough to know what a cramp feels like. It's a muscular shut-down accompanied by intense fleeting pain that you wish would be over, but won't end.

Well, that's the end of my LeBron James defense for the day. Heat in 6, still. Game 1 road win would have just been a dagger, and it's a shame the Heat didn't grab it.

Why the Heat Will Beat the Spurs in 6 Games or Less

San Antonio has had this mental image burning in their minds for the past year, repeating on an infinite loop like an annoying GIF:

It's motivated them to get through the West and secure home court advantage for the Finals. They're relatively healthy, and couldn't have prepared themselves better. Add that to the fact that Popovich knows how to neutralize LeBron (as much as he can be neutralized) by forcing him to take jumpers and frustrating him to the point where he doesn't even try to be aggressive and drive anymore, and the fact that Kawhi Leonard (or the less-athletic Boris Diaw, who does a decent job on LeBron bothering him with his size) is freakishly athletic and has the wingspan and energy to pester LeBron continuously, and you'd think that the Spurs should be favored in this series. Miami's tendency to only play to their potential when their backs are truly against the wall and the Spurs tendency to do everything right at all times and get production from even their worst role players bode very well for the Spurs.

However, here are 6 keys (assist to my good friend +Joshua Etzion) that will put the Heat over the top:

1. Wade has been well-rested all year and is now playing incredibly efficiently and well in these Playoffs. Last year, he was so hurt that his knee was being drained before most games and he had 8 hours of therapy per day; he was so bad that he wasn't in the crunch time lineup that gave the Heat the initial 4th quarter lead in Game 6, and Spoelstra gave him Greg Oden-esque minutes (obviously, a little exaggeration here). Wade, ever the fierce competitor, went so far as to tell Spoelstra, "Don't play me." Every time he's doubted, he gets back up and plays like his dominant self. This is the narrative I see for him in the Finals:

Manu Ginobili might have a similarly good Eurostep, but he sure isn't going to be a defensive threat to Wade. The Spurs don't have anyone who Wade can't totally dominate his match-up against. A healthy Wade shifts some attention away from LeBron and stifles Pop's game plan, opening up driving lanes and corner 3s for guys like Lewis and Allen. Healthy Dwyane = 4 rings.

2. Danny Green set the Finals record for 3 point shots made. If history or statistics are any indication, this isn't going to happen again. Without him providing that 60+% 3PT shot threat, the Heat can pack the paint more on Parker and Ginobili drives and concentrate more on Duncan and Splitter when they're in. Miami should be a better 3PT shooting team than San Antonio given that they boast a roster with all-time greats from behind the arc like Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen while having Chalmers, an improved Cole, and Battier. Even Wade has been hitting threes! And, I haven't seen that happening since his "talk to the hand" days pre-Big Three era.

3. Gary Neal was spelling a tired Parker and an underperforming Ginobili for most of the series last year. When the Heat should have otherwise been punishing the Spurs bench with those guys out, Neal was shooting a ridiculous percentage from behind the arc on Danny Green-esque levels. He was nailing absurd buzzer beaters and looked like an All-Star out there.

Gary Neal couldn't replicate this performance (see, Heat sweep of Spurs a few weeks ago) if he were still around, and neither will Marco Bellinelli in his stead. 

4. Duncan and Parker were other-worldly in last year's Finals, but won't be this year. Duncan had All-Star stats after the first half in a few games and dominated his match-up with Bosh. Bosh will take that personally this year and the Heat will do a much better job neutralizing the offensive threat that Duncan poses. When LeBron is on Parker, he should obviously have the edge in that match-up. This simply won't happen again. I fully expect Duncan and Parker to be great as they always are, but the performances they had last year just won't be replicated this year. If Parker's hamstring and ankle injuries haven't been exaggerated and are still nagging him, this could slow him down. Their best player is less healthy than Dwyane Wade is. Think about that for a second and if you ever could have envisioned that happening for these Finals after all Wade has been through with his knee.

5. Bosh has a new weapon in his arsenal. A great three point shot and a penchant for hitting it in the big moments. Miami don't need to rely on Shane Battier to stretch the floor and nail 7 threes (which obviously is unlikely to happen again). Miami doesn't need to rely on a shoeless Mike Miller (now Rashard Lewis) for a magical performance. Bosh's three point shot will help draw Duncan, Splitter, and/or Diaw out of the paint and stretch the floor such that Pop's plan to pack the paint against LeBron and Wade will be severely hampered. If they keep to their plan, which they probably will (Spurs can definitely stay disciplined), Bosh will have tons of wide open three point shots available to him. And he'll hit them at a clip above 40% I would bet. Bosh is going to have a big series after a few duds last year, and he's going to remind everyone who keeps calling the Big Three just Wade and James why he took his talents to South Beach.

6. The Spurs can't just pack the paint and dare LeBron to shoot jumpers. Not only will he ready for that and Spoelstra's game-plan already incorporate ways to get him loose, but he also just won't be surprised by it or made uncomfortable like he was early on in the series last year. LeBron shot ~80% on his jab-step jumpers from near the elbow. That simply wasn't the case last year, or against the Mavs in 2011. Daring him to shoot might be the best way to try neutralize him, but it won't succeed like it has in the past. His game has evolved and every team tries to do this against him now. Granted, the Spurs are way better at executing it, but LeBron's talent will just be too much to overcome.

Last year, you saw LeBron realize that if he took off his headband and focused completely and entirely on the task at hand, he could beat any odds. I expect him to bring that confidence and effort to this series, and truly have a career defining performance in these Finals a la 2006 Dwyane Wade. Miami understands the opportunity here, and the implications that losing would have for their legacy and for the team staying together for the next few years. Don't count on them blowing any more opportunities. 

Heat in 6. LeBron with 3 rings and a winning record in the Finals. Wade with four rings. Allen with three rings. Oden with more rings than Durant. Money in the bank for everyone who bet for the Heat to win this year at +190 odds.