Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miami Heat. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

LeBron Suitors Chasing Shabazz Napier

LeBron's suitors--including the Miami Heat--should all be taking a good look at Shabazz Napier in the upcoming draft after LeBron's tweet about Napier being the best point guard in the draft:




LeBron has been very complimentary of Napier since the tournament and this is certainly not the first time he has publicly sung his praise. For a team looking to sign LeBron in the next few weeks, adding Napier could be a strong move. It would be a particularly strong move for Miami, who sorely lacks strong PG play with the disappearing act that was Mario Chalmers against the Spurs. I'd love to keep Norris Cole, and would be really upset to see him go; but, if that's what it takes to keep LeBron happy, then Miami should do it. There is almost no way that Napier falls to the 26 spot, so Riley is aggressively trying to move up to a pick in the late teens. Unfortunately, Miami has no assets besides Cole and a 2017 first round pick to flip into a higher pick in this draft. We'll see what Riley can pull off, though. He certainly fits the bill of the type of player that Riley targets in drafts (when he targets anyone at all rather than just flipping the pick for veteran free agents): a multi-year veteran college player who has developed his skills, overcome adversity, and had a taste of championship success. Napier is exactly that kind of guy. He isn't the uber-athletic point guard that would be great on the Heat, and struggles with on-ball perimeter defense; yet, scouts seem confident that he can develop better defensive habits just like Chris Bosh did when he came to the Heat.

Still, I don't want to see Cole go, but it's a small price to pay to lure LeBron back to Miami and set the tone for Wade and Bosh's opt-out decisions and probable pay cuts. I think I might prefer them to flip the 26th pick for Iman Shumpert if that deal is even on the table; something tells me Phil Jackson isn't going to do Riley any favors. It's a Cole World out there...

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Godfather talking about the Big Three Staying in the Family Business

Pat Riley coming out with the stuff of legends. He really just shuts down the reporters and tells them to "get a grip." "If you got the guts and you don't find the first door and run out of it, if you have an opportunity."

He is fully confident that he will bring back the Big Three, and used the Spurs as a prime example of why you don't blow up and old core in the face of adversity.

He related to the Heat players on a personal level and the family ties between them. Their kids all love Miami and some of them are each others' godparents. Savannah is having another child this summer, and Wade is getting married this summer as well. That will mean that all three of them will have gotten married during their time in Miami.

Listen to Riley talk about the Heat's plans for the future:



Sunday, June 15, 2014

Confidence in the Heat's Ability to Make History

So, I was clearly wrong about the Heat winning in 6 or less. The deck is stacked against them right now, and they haven't oozed the confidence that they have in the past. However, San Antonio knows it would be a grave mistake to think they have this in the bag. They are drawing on last year's experience and reliving the Ray Allen shot over and over again to motivate themselves.

If any team in history has the talent to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, it is this Miami Heat team. Some incredible performances from Wade, LeBron, and Bosh can really make things happen. The Spurs have had the benefit of those incredible performances in Games 3 and 4.

Winning tonight will be huge for the Heat's confidence. They will feel great coming home and needing to win to get to a Game 7 to determine the fate of their three-peat. The prospects of beating San Antonio three consecutive games and twice on the road are really slim, but this team has relied on sheer talent to win games and to dig deep and I don't expect them to crumble.

As much as it has pained me to watch the Heat get destroyed over the past two games, I have kept watching until the very last minute because I know how quickly they can turn things around for the better. That's the joy of watching this Heat team. They can do anything. I hate to quote Kevin Garnett, but "anything is possible."

Sunday, June 8, 2014

LeBron Will Rise to the Task

Tonight, after all the backlash against LeBron, he's going to do what he always does when his back is against the wall and have a legendary performance. I don't expect it to quite reach Game 6 Boston levels, but he is going to be super-aggressive (and hopefully, super-hydrated as well) and really make his mark on this game. It should be a close game, but I think Miami will get the much-coveted split tonight. In the 2-2-1-1-1 format that the NBA finally switched back to for the Finals, home court advantage is even more important. Miami really won't want to go home in a 2-0 hole, where the Spurs can steal a close game and then come home for Game 5 to finish them off. Consequently, you can expect the Big Three to be incredibly aggressive tonight on defense. They're going to try to smother Danny Green, and make sure they're chasing him off the line at all time. While it would be nice if Bosh could play better defense on Duncan, I think the Heat are content to let him get his 25-10 stats as long as the three point shooters are kept in check and Parker isn't going nuts creating easy dump-offs after his drives.

Tonight's game should be a tight one because the Spurs don't often get complacent (especially after last year's Finals debacle for them) like the Heat are prone to do when their backs aren't against the wall. But, I expect Miami to snag a game tonight and win Game 3 on an emotionally-charged home court in a couple days.

With no Lance Stephenson antics, no A/C failures, and no other silly distractions from the great basketball being played, the rest of this series should be exactly what it has been billed as...a hotly (no pun intended) contested match-up of two NBA teams who will already be known as some of the best teams in league history.

Side Note: We're going to have a Super Mario Chalmers sighting. Less turnovers, more high-arcing threes.

Friday, June 6, 2014

Cramps and Stupid Tweets

Twitter was ablaze with baseless hatred and vitriol spewed toward LeBron, as usual, after last night's sweltering heat and resultant cramps. LeBron has had problems with cramps in the past, such as during the game in the 2012 Finals against OKC. If you remember that, you'll think of LeBron limping back onto the court and nailing a dagger three. If you don't, you might want to watch it again:



Of course, no one mentions this when they talk about LeBron not having grit and not fighting through pain. You want to compare other guys limping over and taking free throws (which don't require jumping, or moving, by the way) while hurt, but not compare LeBron to himself two years ago. Trust me, if there was any way his body would let him continue, he would have. In fact, he already was doing so after several cramps earlier in the game. He has quadriceps the size of a horse's and when they fail and start uncontrollably spasm-ing, it's not fun. This isn't an issue of playing through pain; it's an issue of simply not being able to continue in a way that helps his team. Risking further injury in that ridiculous environment when he was clearly dehydrated and exhausted would not have been heroic. It would have been idiotic. Spoelstra and the training staff instantly told him he could not continue; otherwise, he would have been on the floor stretching it out, pounding Gatorade, and taking potassium pills or other sources of electrolytes.

Plain and simple, the Heat should have won Game 1. This isn't to say they definitely would have, but they dominated the game up through that point, and things only changed when LeBron came out. Let's answer a couple common criticisms from last night, through the lens of dumb trolling tweets:

1. Kobe injury comparisons -

Yes, Kobe shot free throws after tearing his Achilles. Not a huge deal; if LeBron needed to do that, he definitely could have and would have. He's shot free throws with his left hand before. He has played through pain and cramps before, which by the way, are completely different. Did he need to be carried off the court? Probably not. But, his teammates didn't know what was wrong necessarily and there is no badge of honor associated with walking off the court on your own volition when you could risk further injury with a cramping and spasming muscle. It's just stupid. If you want to talk about something stupid, let's talk about Paul Pierce's dramatic return from the locker room in a wheelchair.




The bottom line here is that the comparison is stupid. Here's a comparison: Kobe sat out this season. LeBron is in the Finals, again.

2. "The heat affected both teams equally."




Well, thank you for your in-depth analysis! The simple fact for anyone who knows anything about basketball is that the Spurs are much deeper team and that is their strength. Popovich plays rotations just like the one he played in Game 1 that rest his Big Three and rely on the supporting cast to do the rest. The Heat were constructed as a top-heavy team that relies primarily on heavy minutes and contributions from Wade, James, and Bosh. They got that contribution, but only for 33 minutes.

3. Michael Jordan played in the "flu" game and other people have played injured.

Yes, Jordan's flu game was impressive. Do I think LeBron could have done it given the opportunity? Definitely. How many games has LeBron missed for injury or illness that were not preventive maintenance in the past few season? Not many. Definitely less than Jordan. DEFINITELY less than Kobe.




LeBron has played through cramps before, and done so in a meaningful way to win a game in the Finals...don't forget that. He also frequently rolls his ankle or hurts his back or a number of other ailments and plays through it without any complaint. He is the most durable player in the league and has proven his grit time and time again.

Here's him playing through back pain:
          Here's him dropping 33 on the Pacers after a bad ankle sprain:
Here's him coming back from the same injury (in air-conditioning this time) to spark the rally to win a Playoff game this year:
 Almost forgot this one...here's him dropping 61 on the Bobcats with a broken nose:
 And, his own flu game...granted, much less important:
 
You know what's better than playing through pain and other circumstances? Being superhuman, never missing games, and almost never getting hurt. That's what LeBron gives you. And, when he does get hurt, he plays through it.

4. "LeBron cramped up, but no one else did."


Here's a suggestion why that might be the case...he is more athletic, relies on that athleticism for his game, and uses it more than any other player on the floor. He's not Mr. Fundamental like Duncan...he does absolutely EVERYTHING on both sides of the ball. Leads the team in assists, points, and rebounds on almost any given night while being their best defensive player. He guards Parker, Green, Leonard, and Duncan. He is guarded by Diaw and Leonard. I think it's fair to say he exerts a considerable amount more energy than anyone on the floor. I'm sure if you measured how many calories he was burning out there, he would be putting everyone else to shame just like he does by any other statistical measure. There are no excuses for him, and he isn't looking for any. The Heat still could have won, but this just put another stumbling block in their way (and a big one). The hate he gets for it is crazy.

You know what LeBron James never did? Leave the sport of basketball in his prime to play another sport that he was pretty terrible at. Jordan is celebrated for that, but if LeBron went off to play football for a year (which he would instantly be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at), he would be absolutely vilified for it...let alone if he went to play minor league baseball. I don't mean this to criticize Jordan, but merely to draw a comparison between the type of media and Internet criticism that LeBron is subjected to. Yes, he has brought some of it upon himself by opening up his life to the media and being a playful personality. When you have your own app about you, you're kind of asking for it.

The simple fact is that LeBron gets way too much criticism, and it's just stupid. He's the best basketball player in the world right now, and he is making a legitimate run at being the best ever. You said he's not clutch? You've already been proven wrong. (Yes, he did have a period where everyone saying he wasn't clutch became a self-fulfilling prophecy and made him less clutch; that period is over.) Yes, he passes sometimes (to wide-open, great shooters) when he should just selfishly assert his own dominance. That's better than missing on a forced shot like Kobe is so fond of doing.










Anyone talking about his cramps has never played a sport in their life, or at least hasn't played it hard enough to know what a cramp feels like. It's a muscular shut-down accompanied by intense fleeting pain that you wish would be over, but won't end.

Well, that's the end of my LeBron James defense for the day. Heat in 6, still. Game 1 road win would have just been a dagger, and it's a shame the Heat didn't grab it.




Thursday, June 5, 2014

Why the Heat Will Beat the Spurs in 6 Games or Less

San Antonio has had this mental image burning in their minds for the past year, repeating on an infinite loop like an annoying GIF:


It's motivated them to get through the West and secure home court advantage for the Finals. They're relatively healthy, and couldn't have prepared themselves better. Add that to the fact that Popovich knows how to neutralize LeBron (as much as he can be neutralized) by forcing him to take jumpers and frustrating him to the point where he doesn't even try to be aggressive and drive anymore, and the fact that Kawhi Leonard (or the less-athletic Boris Diaw, who does a decent job on LeBron bothering him with his size) is freakishly athletic and has the wingspan and energy to pester LeBron continuously, and you'd think that the Spurs should be favored in this series. Miami's tendency to only play to their potential when their backs are truly against the wall and the Spurs tendency to do everything right at all times and get production from even their worst role players bode very well for the Spurs.

However, here are 6 keys (assist to my good friend +Joshua Etzion) that will put the Heat over the top:

1. Wade has been well-rested all year and is now playing incredibly efficiently and well in these Playoffs. Last year, he was so hurt that his knee was being drained before most games and he had 8 hours of therapy per day; he was so bad that he wasn't in the crunch time lineup that gave the Heat the initial 4th quarter lead in Game 6, and Spoelstra gave him Greg Oden-esque minutes (obviously, a little exaggeration here). Wade, ever the fierce competitor, went so far as to tell Spoelstra, "Don't play me." Every time he's doubted, he gets back up and plays like his dominant self. This is the narrative I see for him in the Finals:




Manu Ginobili might have a similarly good Eurostep, but he sure isn't going to be a defensive threat to Wade. The Spurs don't have anyone who Wade can't totally dominate his match-up against. A healthy Wade shifts some attention away from LeBron and stifles Pop's game plan, opening up driving lanes and corner 3s for guys like Lewis and Allen. Healthy Dwyane = 4 rings.

2. Danny Green set the Finals record for 3 point shots made. If history or statistics are any indication, this isn't going to happen again. Without him providing that 60+% 3PT shot threat, the Heat can pack the paint more on Parker and Ginobili drives and concentrate more on Duncan and Splitter when they're in. Miami should be a better 3PT shooting team than San Antonio given that they boast a roster with all-time greats from behind the arc like Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen while having Chalmers, an improved Cole, and Battier. Even Wade has been hitting threes! And, I haven't seen that happening since his "talk to the hand" days pre-Big Three era.

3. Gary Neal was spelling a tired Parker and an underperforming Ginobili for most of the series last year. When the Heat should have otherwise been punishing the Spurs bench with those guys out, Neal was shooting a ridiculous percentage from behind the arc on Danny Green-esque levels. He was nailing absurd buzzer beaters and looked like an All-Star out there.

Gary Neal couldn't replicate this performance (see, Heat sweep of Spurs a few weeks ago) if he were still around, and neither will Marco Bellinelli in his stead. 
4. Duncan and Parker were other-worldly in last year's Finals, but won't be this year. Duncan had All-Star stats after the first half in a few games and dominated his match-up with Bosh. Bosh will take that personally this year and the Heat will do a much better job neutralizing the offensive threat that Duncan poses. When LeBron is on Parker, he should obviously have the edge in that match-up. This simply won't happen again. I fully expect Duncan and Parker to be great as they always are, but the performances they had last year just won't be replicated this year. If Parker's hamstring and ankle injuries haven't been exaggerated and are still nagging him, this could slow him down. Their best player is less healthy than Dwyane Wade is. Think about that for a second and if you ever could have envisioned that happening for these Finals after all Wade has been through with his knee.

5. Bosh has a new weapon in his arsenal. A great three point shot and a penchant for hitting it in the big moments. Miami don't need to rely on Shane Battier to stretch the floor and nail 7 threes (which obviously is unlikely to happen again). Miami doesn't need to rely on a shoeless Mike Miller (now Rashard Lewis) for a magical performance. Bosh's three point shot will help draw Duncan, Splitter, and/or Diaw out of the paint and stretch the floor such that Pop's plan to pack the paint against LeBron and Wade will be severely hampered. If they keep to their plan, which they probably will (Spurs can definitely stay disciplined), Bosh will have tons of wide open three point shots available to him. And he'll hit them at a clip above 40% I would bet. Bosh is going to have a big series after a few duds last year, and he's going to remind everyone who keeps calling the Big Three just Wade and James why he took his talents to South Beach.
6. The Spurs can't just pack the paint and dare LeBron to shoot jumpers. Not only will he ready for that and Spoelstra's game-plan already incorporate ways to get him loose, but he also just won't be surprised by it or made uncomfortable like he was early on in the series last year. LeBron shot ~80% on his jab-step jumpers from near the elbow. That simply wasn't the case last year, or against the Mavs in 2011. Daring him to shoot might be the best way to try neutralize him, but it won't succeed like it has in the past. His game has evolved and every team tries to do this against him now. Granted, the Spurs are way better at executing it, but LeBron's talent will just be too much to overcome.

Last year, you saw LeBron realize that if he took off his headband and focused completely and entirely on the task at hand, he could beat any odds. I expect him to bring that confidence and effort to this series, and truly have a career defining performance in these Finals a la 2006 Dwyane Wade. Miami understands the opportunity here, and the implications that losing would have for their legacy and for the team staying together for the next few years. Don't count on them blowing any more opportunities. 

Heat in 6. LeBron with 3 rings and a winning record in the Finals. Wade with four rings. Allen with three rings. Oden with more rings than Durant. Money in the bank for everyone who bet for the Heat to win this year at +190 odds.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

The Squeaky Wheel Got the Grease, But It's Going to Fall Off: The End of the Road for the Pacers

The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Grease: that's what my grandmother always told me when I was growing up, and she certainly led by example. However, the important point she taught me was that you shouldn't abuse the opportunity to "squeak." Paul George and the Indiana Pacers did just that by complaining about the foul differential about the Heat in their post-game press conferences after Game 4. That wasn't the reason you guys got blown out, Paul, and there were really only one or two bad calls that didn't change the game meaningfully at all.

To be clear, the reason the Heat fouled way less than the Pacers was because they played with much more intensity, effort, focus, and just general crispness. I know it's a popular trope to say that LeBron gets superstar calls, and he does sometimes; however, far more often, LeBron doesn't get the same kind of touch fouls or other types of loose ball or open court fouls that other players (far less "superstar" caliber players) get. Kevin Durant seems to get a heck of a lot more calls than LeBron, especially on his drives. This is because Durant is simply less of a physical presence, and so fouls look worse against him. LeBron is such an athletic freak that some of those touch fouls barely bother him or alter the course of a shot; but, when the tables are turned, those touch fouls go against LeBron.

Four out of the five fouls called against LeBron were absolutely egregious:



After watching the referees needlessly ruin Game 5 with terrible foul calls against LeBron, it's pretty clear that there must have been some motivation to rectify the foul disparity at any cost. Once LeBron picked up his third foul and had to sit out a large portion of the first half, the refs relentlessly continued calling stupid fouls against him. The charge call against Paul George who literally was on one leg having leaped in front of LeBron off-balance is a textbook blocking foul in that scenario. Meanwhile, with the Pacers only even somewhat successful strategy (publicly and privately) being to frustrate LeBron with Stephenson's childish antics, the refs chose not to call obvious flops by Stephenson (especially after the 5th foul was called):




How this play wasn't called a flop is crazy to me; Stephenson should have been given at least three technical fouls over the course of the game and been ejected after the second, but that didn't happen. The NBA needs to send a message that such antics will not be tolerated because all it does is tarnish the brand and product that they are putting on the court. (Yes, Heat players have been guilty of flopping at times too, but nothing this terrible and this persistent accompanied by other childish antics). At very least, Stephenson needs to be fined twice for this game, and should possibly even be suspended for a game (and might be if this were not the postseason or if Frank Vogel had any control over his team). Maybe in his game off, he can fly to New York and practice tying his shoes with JR Smith while they blow in each other's ears.

Heat fans are certainly not going to get any sympathy about calls, but that narrative is backwards and broken. LeBron is hurt by the things that make him a superstar (his athleticism, speed, and size) more than the fringe benefits of being a superstar (getting "superstar" calls). At crucial times, he doesn't get the calls that a "superstar" would get. That would be OK normally, but there's been a huge overcorrection and overcompensation for his perceived superstar treatment. Time to get back to reality, Ed Malloy and company...

Friday, May 23, 2014

Heat-Pacers Series Update

Miami hasn't looked like its dominant self against the Pacers. Wade's been good, but LeBron is due for a Game 6 Boston style LeBron game, and Bosh has been mediocre.

 The Pacers having their "overcoming adversity" moments in the earlier rounds of the Playoffs, but ultimately making it to the Eastern Conference Finals was something I feared because it would give them a renewed sense of confidence that they would be able to actually beat the Heat despite all their recent struggles. That's what makes Game 3 so important. The Heat got the split they wanted, and now they need to put the Pacers backs against the walls and put them in crisis mode. While the Heat have gone down in plenty of series (including against the Pacers and the Big Three era Celtics), the Pacers probably don't have the same level of resiliency against a world-class team like the Heat.

I expect LeBron to bring a sense of urgency to protecting home court, which the Heat wastefully squandered when the Pacers had all but handed it to them at the close of the regular season. A Greg Oden appearance, even for a few minutes, might help to spell Haslem and Birdman and give the Heat the little bit of boost they need to feel like they can compete with the Pacers size. The bigs, including Oden, don't need to be impact players; they simply need to box out and grab defensive rebounds so that LeBron, Wade, Bosh and the other role players don't feel like they need to take on the incredibly onerous burden of grabbing all the boards and bodying up big guys like West and Hibbert.


Thursday, May 15, 2014

Heat Win in 5, As Predicted

Miami pulled it off in 5, just as I predicted in my post earlier last week.

Here's the play that essentially ended Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnetts' NBA careers...unfortunately, for them, they didn't really have anything to do with it:



LeBron was simply incredible, despite the quadruple-teams and strong traps he was commanding all night. The shooters, ranging from Ray Allen to Big Shot Bosh really pulled through in the clutch.

Birdman had some incredible tip out rebounds early in the game. His athleticism might be waning, but his effort certainly isn't. I really hope he can continue to contribute at this incredible leave. if he stays in Miami next year. For reference, he has one of the highest PERs in the Playoffs behind a couple of superstars. He's an incredibly underrated player, and will be key to the Heat's championship aspirations.

Bring on the Wizards.

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

Heat-Nets Second Round Matchup

I remember when someone on the Nets said that there wasn't anything that LeBron James could do that Andray Blatche couldn't do.

I hope they remember saying that because LeBron is about to obliterate them in 5 games or less. Yes, people will talk about how the Nets are the only team in the Big Three era to sweep the Heat in a season series. Yet, the last win was totally ridiculous (terrible call with Wade's foot well in bounds for the three AND Plumlee's foul at the end of the game when LeBron would have won it with his free throws). The other games simply weren't priorities for the Heat, but they were the entire point of the season for a team like the Nets. Their aging veterans LIVE to be thorns in the side of the Heat, and wouldn't miss any chance to take their shot. The problem is: they are too old, too frail, and not good enough to take those shots for a sustained 7-game series against Miami. This is especially the case when the Heat's sole focus will be (and probably already has been) on the Nets for the past two weeks. In the coaching matchup of Erik Spoelstra against Jason "spilled my drink" Kidd, I think I know who I would take if I were a betting man. The Nets may be deep, but the Heat are simply better and more experienced as a team.

Although the Nets match up very well with the Heat on paper, their star player performances have come from Joe Johnson and timely play from Paul Pierce. Paul "slow ball" Pierce isn't going to be much of a challenge for LeBron, although he and Garnett will bring their 2009 A game in at least some moments of the series. Joe Johnson is a tough matchup for Wade because of his length, but Wade is more than up for the challenge. The Heat can spell Wade with some of their other lengthy and capable wing defenders like Shane Battier in order to keep Dwyane fresh on the offensive end. Plus, Wade has plenty of experiences sweeping Johnson and his Hawks in the past several years in JJ's pre-Brooklyn days. Let's just hope he doesn't have to wear his stupid nickname jersey during the Playoffs.

When this Nets team was put together, it was put together to take advantage of Miami's weaknesses at the Point Guard and Center spots. Now, Brook Lopez is out and they can't really take advantage of the Heat with height. They have some good bigs, but not skilled offensive players or great defensive stoppers outside of Kevin Garnett. Bosh will be able to at least neutralize Garnett for the 20 minutes per game he plays in the series. The biggest contribution Pierce and Garnett will have is their veteran experience, their lack of trepidation in the spotlight, and their intense hatred (and relative success) against Lebron and Wade.

However, just like Pierce and Garnett get up for games against the Heat, the Heat know that those guys thrive on beating the Heat and will be equally up for the challenge of dispatching them in embarrassing fashion (either a sweep, or a 4-1 series win).

Are the Nets the biggest challenge in the East for the Heat? "Get out of here..." says LeBron. Actually, they might be, but LeBron didn't know that Hibbert and the Pacers would have one of the most historic Playoff collapses in history when he said that. Hibbert might actually be worse than Kwame Brown.

Note: Although Miami would have certainly swept the Raptors, I'm happy they will have a better tune-up round by playing Brooklyn. I always love to see Pierce and Garnett lose, especially if I might have the chance to see it in person while I'm in New York.

Road to the Three-Peat

The Miami Heat's path to its third consecutive championship has not looked clear all season (except maybe when LeBron did this). In one of the most competitive first rounds in NBA Playoff history, the Heat's best competition are not only wearing themselves out playing 6 and 7 game series (a real thing that affects elite players apparently - see, e.g. LeBron James in the 2011 Finals, LeBron James in every season before he joined the Heat, the Oklahoma City Thunder the past few years), bearing the brunt of the concomitant wear-and-tear and injuries that come along with it, but also are looking and presumably feeling more vulnerable as a result. An ancillary benefit of these hotly contested series is that the Heat can sit home and pick apart tape from their potential contenders in the Finals; these teams going seven games deep into their series and going into several overtimes are having to pull out every trick in their playbook, every set, every out-of-bounds play, every defensive adjustment, and every gimmick ("Hack-a-______" in the cases of Portland and Golden State). All this while the Heat sit home and get their aging stars some much-needed rest to keep them spry for a long run. The only obstacle in the way of the Heat in getting more rings is the possibility of injury. Roy Hibbert has literally picked up every stone and moved it out of the Heat's path to the Finals. For the other Eastern Conference Finals "Contender," the remainder of the Playoffs is a slow Sisyphean climb to an eventual kick back to the bottom of the pile compliments of LeBron & Co.

Like I've said before, the Clippers and the Grizzlies are the teams that are the most dangerous to the Heat. Thankfully, the Clippers and Spurs don't have the same matchup problems with the Grizzlies that the Heat do, and so the Grizzlies will never make it out of the Western Conference. Everyone thinks that the Spurs are the team to beat, but really it has to be the Clippers. They are equipped with an almost perfect combination of personnel to beat up on the Heat. The best point guard in the game, a springy athletic center who can dominate the paint and offensive glass, a dominant power forward who is athletic and aggressive (i.e., can't be checked by Bosh in the paint), and shooters like J.J. Redick. Then, when you can bring in guys like Jamal Crawford off the bench in order to stop the bleeding or simply give you a break when you have no rhythm to the Chris Paul-led offense, and a solid rest of the bench to come in and give you quality minutes at every position, you are in great shape. An X-Factor like Barnes (a defensive specialist who can get hot from 3) adds to the problems for the Heat. However, against the Heat, the Clippers simply have no "LeBron stopper," which is someone who can match his size, athleticism, and effort enough to make him uncomfortable. Matt Barnes can play great fundamental defense against LeBron, but will get ruthlessly posted up and blown by such that double teams will be required. 

Moreover, the Heat's second biggest threat has no one to guard him besides J.J. Redick (who happens to be deathly afraid of LeBron), which is a tough proposition if Mr. Wade is healthy. Those are also post-up opportunities waiting to happen. If the Heat can play their typical inside-out (albeit not traditional) style of basketball in which they post their skill players up in the paint or run sets from the elbow to get wide open threes for Allen, Lewis, Jones, Battier, Chalmers, and Cole, or get free buckets, they are tough to beat as well. Both teams would bring great defensive effort, but the advantage presumably goes to the Heat here because they truly rotate on a string and have championship experience doing so and a proven track record of being able to simply stop opponents form scoring when they need to. DeAndre Jordan, oddly enough, would be the key to this series. If he can assert himself offensively OR just be absolutely dominant in the paint on defense (affecting shots and blocking them and encouraging the Heat to take jumpshots like in the 2011 Finals), then the Clippers could be NBA Champions.


I'm backing the best player in the game, though, and his championship surrounding cast. You know, Bosh might not put up the stats that he should when he's up against Blake and DeAndre, but he is still Big Shot Bosh.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Heat Three-Peat Preview: A Healthy Wade

There's a lot of talk around the league about the Heat looking (and performing) the worst of any of their four seasons together in the Big Three era. While it's probably true, the Heat area also the healthiest they've ever been going into the playoffs with the most robust lineup they've ever had. In their first year together, the critical players were fully healthy (with the exception of Bosh and Haslem) down the stretch, but Mike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamal Magliore, and Joel Anthony were all getting big time minutes. To boot, Bibby shot the worst from 3PT of not only his career, but also the history of the playoffs. In the other two runs, Miller, Bosh, Wade, and other role players had nagging injuries or worse. This made the Heat have to pull out heroic performances from LeBron and Wade as well as standout role player performances from Battier and Miller at crucial times. Chalmers, as always, shined in the spotlight.

This year, despite the lack of continuity and rhythm, the team is completely healthy. Bosh and LeBron logged some pretty heavy miles down the stretch, but have now had more than a full week off before the beginning of the series. Bosh is going to get worn down a little in the first round against Charlotte, but no one is really going to tax LeBron unless he's asked to guard Jefferson in crunch time. Wade, barring any setbacks, is looking spry and ready to dominate like he did against the Mavericks in 2006 and 2011, and in key games against the Pacers two years ago.

I have no doubt that the Heat find their rhythm after the first series. The East is the worst it has been in decades and the Heat are pulling the Bobcats and then probably the Nets (or if they're lucky, Toronto). They'll have home court in both of these series. If Toronto manages to beat the Nets, the Heat will have a good chance of sweeping both opponents in the first two rounds and being fully rested for their matchup against Indiana (assuming they don't continue their free fall in the playoffs.) Oh, and anyone who thinks the Nets are really a threat because they won 4 games by less than 3 points, you're nuts. Remember when the Bulls and Celtics clobbered the Heat in the 2011 regular season...well, they were much better teams and the Heat dismantled them each in 5 games.

As much as the Heat-Pacers rivalry has been hyped up, the Pacers truly aren't the threat to the Heat that the media makes them out to be. When Lance Stephenson is your best answer to a healthy Dwyane Wade, and Roy Hibbert can't dominate the undersized Udonis Haslem, you're going to have some serious problems.

The West is more concerning though. Miami won't have home court against any team that's likely to make it out of that conference. Every team except one team concerns me - the Oklahoma City Thunder. Miami made short work of them two years ago in the Finals and that was when they had Harden, who's now one of the best players in the league. Durant can't win the series on his own (much like the Lebron-era Cavaliers), and Westbrook will take just enough of Durant's shots to complicate things even further. They can't exploit the Heat's size weakness because Ibaka's offensive skills haven't developed enough and Kendrick Perkins is simply a big dumpster parked at the rim.



As crazy as it sounds, I'd probably prefer to see Miami play the Spurs rather than the Clippers. The Clippers, if they can pull it together, are young, athletic, great shooters, and exploit the Heat at point guard and center (their two biggest weaknesses). Jamal Crawford can make even the best defense in the league useless with his crazy shotmaking ability, and DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin might just clip the wings off of the Birdman. On the other hand, the Spurs are older and Manu Ginobili looked like he needed to be carted off in a wheelchair after each game in last year's finals. While Ray Allen won't always be there to bail us out, Tony Parker also wont' make scoop shots from 16 feet away from the basket while on the ground and smothered by LeBron. Danny Green won't shoot like the 2011 Mavericks again either. And, Marco Belinelli is overrated.

Remember, with all the talk about the burden being on LeBron, we haven't seen a full-strength Wade in the Big Three era playoffs in full takeover mode. He had the best Finals performance ever, far better than anything Jordan ever did in the Finals, let alone the Playoffs. If he's healthy, the Heat win. It's that simple. He'll be extra motivated to make sure LeBron doesn't even have the thought of leaving this summer. As much as he seems to like the ridiculous nickname "Three," he's going to start making it "Four."





Sunday, April 13, 2014

Championship-Caliber Loyalty: A Building Block of Success

Dan LeBatard eloquently substantiated what Heat fans have known for quite awhile. The organization is predicated on loyalty, which has cultivated a culture of success. You can check out LeBatard's countless examples of the how the Heat organization takes care of its own or you can just think of the fact that they paid Joel Anthony--the hardest worker on the team by far--the fifth highest salary on the team after LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Mike Miller back in that historic free-agent haul. Joel Anthony doesn't even make the active roster on almost any other NBA team. In some sense, it's safe to say that Joel Anthony was the crucial ingredient in the Heat's championship recipe (by only some of his own doing).


I wrote recently about Riley and Arison's loyalty to Haslem, often called the heart and soul of the Heat, in not trading him to the Nuggets a couple years ago and more recently, not trading him to the tanking Sixers for Evan Turner's expiring contract. Any other team would have jumped at the opportunity to trade the aging, undersized veteran forward/center for a potentially rising star who could add critical wing depth for a playoff run. Not the Heat, though. Not only do they immediately benefit from Haslem's resurgence (see below for the type of defense that can be expected of him), but more importantly, they benefit from the impending re-signing of the Big Three. Riley's "paying it forward' will pay dividends with more championships, and more crucial free agents looking to be a part of the Miami Heat family.

For all the hate that's spewed at the Heat, you can't knock the fact that they are hands-down the most loyal NBA franchise, possibly the most loyal franchise in sports altogether. And, the guys that are there now are an integral part of that ethic of loyalty, team-work, and family that started from the top-down. When it comes time for a role player to make a choice on where they want to be next season, or for a star like Wade to choose where he wants to spend the waning years of his career, Riley's history of loyalty and the culture he's built in Miami will be almost as much of an attraction as the team's championship pedigree. 


The man even showed loyalty to Michael Jordan, hanging his jersey in the rafters of American Airlines Arena. He recognizes greatness and pays homage to it. He recognizes hard-work and rewards it. And he'll continue to accrue more rings than he can fit on any of his digits.

This is a philosophy that extends far beyond basketball, and is the lynchpin of dozens of successful companies. That's why Arison is on board to give Riley full control of his "company" culture.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

March Madness Begins


Now that I've gotten over my disappointment that LeBron didn't score 100 and live up to my ridiculous expectations and dreams when when he was on pace to do just that after the first quarter against the Cavs (which I guess could be a blessing in disguise because I don't want him to have any more happy thoughts associated with the city of Cleveland until he re-signs with Miami for the discernible future). OK, enough Heat ranting. March Madness time.

Here's an ugly version of my bracket because my friend didn't invite me to our league with the correct e-mail address. Please forgive him.


Anyway, the Pitt and Harvard upsets worked out well for me, but Dayton and BYU went ahead and lost me a billion dollars. Not picking Oregon was stupid, but I was rushed. Also, picking BYU in anything but the first game despite them being one of the last teams in the tournament was also a pretty dumb thing for me to do. Billion dollar mistakes.

-----
Side Note: Harvard Basketball is killing it. Are these consecutive tournament appearances/wins the residual Jeremy Lin boost or just the normal ebb and flow of relevance of an Ivy League basketball team?

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Dwyane Wade and 90s Slang

           In honor of Dwayne Wade's recent return to form since the All-Star Break, check out this throwback post from the spring before Lebron's "Decision" in 2010 from my good friend Andrew Zolot. My nostalgia for the pre-decision glory days is running strong as the playoffs and the impending free agency of the Big Three draws nearer and another glorious rebuild comes ever closer. This article was originally written for The Dartmouth Independent, but their site is unfortunately no longer online, so here it is:

          The phrase “talk to the hand” was popularized by esteemed thespian Martin Lawrence during the five season run of his sitcom Martin.


 Its use, together with the implied second half of the statement “because the face is not listening,” allowed the 90’s American to ward off any homies that were attempting to ice their grill easily and effectively. Then Martin went off the air in 1997, and, sadly, the phrase has been unusable ever since. Unusable, that is, until Sunday afternoon when Dwyane Wade, in the midst of one of the dopest playoffs performances witnessed since these phrases were in vogue, went old school on the Boston Celtics. After scoring eleven points in the first two minutes and forty-seven seconds of the fourth quarter, Wade trotted down the floor, talking to his own hand. And every face in the American Airlines Arena was listening.



            Dwyane’s performance is notable first and foremost for the ease and style with which he converted a six point deficit to a five point lead. At this stage in his career, it’s rarely surprising when Wade goes supernova and almost single-handedly wins a game. He outscored the entire Celtics team by himself in the fourth quarter, posting nineteen points to the Celtics’ fifteen on five of six shooting from the field. He drained all four threes he took. Make no mistake: these are not human qualities. Few other players have that gear, and it’s precisely this type of play that makes Wade the de facto second prize in what will be one of the hottest free agent markets the NBA has ever experienced (second prize after LeBron James, who is hereafter referred to as “Optimus Prime” based on the fact that he is an indestructible basketballing machine, and because we’re keeping this firmly grounded in nineties pop culture). 

            Wade’s antics in those moments when his greatness comes to the fore make him, at least for this Heat fan, the best entertainer in the game. He has only two peers in the NBA skill-wise in Kobe and LeBroptimus. But Kobe is at the point where he is so accustomed to his greatness that game winning shots don’t even faze him. Sure, he’ll knock ‘em down almost every time, but the only reward is a cool nod and possibly a chest bump or two. He’s not in it for the fans, he’s just a creature that needs to win to validate the insane amount of work he puts into the game (and for good reason). Optimus, on the other hand, is very much the greatest basketball show on earth. He is a veritable three-ring-circus, a basketball freakshow from another planet. No other player is as physically gifted, no other player as unstoppable. He jumps higher, passes more accurately, runs faster, and does everything but lay waste to opponents with shoulder-mounted rockets and lasers. But even when LeBron is peering down into the rim – literally – as he tomahawks another two points that feel like they should count for ten, the performance is somehow cheapened by the fact that you simply expect it. The man is six-feet-nine-inches of the greatest athlete you will ever witness. You would be disappointed if he didn’t dominate.

            Wade’s game, on the other hand, is all drama. He stands a mere 6’4”, yet he collects blocks on the biggest players in the league through sheer how-the-hell-does-he-jump-that-high?-ness. He weaves through defenses with a slick combination of wicked handles and changes of direction that are impossible to predict or keep up with. And he has an unmatched sense for the moment. Case in point: March 9th, 2009, Bulls-Heat, three seconds left in the second overtime, Wade steals the ball from John Salmons and dribbles the length of the court, hitting a running three pointer to win the game as time expires. He then sprints over and jumps up onto the scorer’s table, screaming over and over that “This is my house!” just in case it was still in doubt. Or how about the time he blocked Amare Stoudemire (only six inches taller than Wade) with his forearm, launched a sixty-eight-foot shot and danced all the way down court as it splashed through? YouTube that insanity if you haven’t seen it. And then there was Sunday, when Wade screamed at his own hand like a madman after putting in another signature, game-winning performance. As he said after the game, “I was telling [my hand] he was hot. We were having a conversation about that.” This is the attitude and these are the moments that make Wade one of the most adored and sought after brands in the league. And this is why I want him to stay in Miami.

            Of course, four-for-four-from-three is out of character for Wade, a point made all the more salient as he missed all three treys in the fourth quarter of game five. Unable to produce another Herculean effort to pull the rest of the flotsam that fills out the roster into the win column, Wade and the Heat crashed out of the first round of the playoffs for the third time in four years. And so the summer that will make or break the Heat franchise has just about arrived. The speculation over where Wade, Optimus, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, and the rest of the Summer of ‘10 free agent class will land is only barely overshadowed by the playoffs, but it’s no secret that Wade’s preferred option is to build a title contender in Miami. That he will stay is no foregone conclusion, though. His first priority is winning, and after the game five loss Wade made the prediction, “This will be my last first-round exit for a while.”

           The burning question is whether Pat Riley can lure the right free agent to Miami to persuade Wade to stay. The Heat figure to have about $24 million in cap room to work with, more than enough to sign a max free agent and then some. And that’s not even taking into account the possibility that the Heat might be able to move Michael Beasley, James Jones, and Daequan Cook to take their payroll all the way down to zero, aside from Wade. With a projected cap around $56 million next season, that leaves the possibility that two max free agents could join Wade in Miami.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The Heat’s future is just as much about what happens after the dust settles and the marquee free agents have signed their max contracts. Signing Dwyane and another max free agent would make the Heat instant contenders in the East, but the makeup of the rest of the roster would determine whether they are good enough to bring home rings. The only three players currently on the roster that are relevant in that regard are Udonis Haslem, Mario Chalmers, and Michael Beasley. Wade has stated before that he would prefer Udonis Haslem (and Dorell Wright) stay with him wherever he signs, going so far as to say in his most recent interview, “I would love for them to be here. I would love for them to be with me for the rest of my career. They’re like my brothers. I love those guys.”

Trying not to read too much into Wade’s use of the word “here” – i.e. in Miami – it’s reassuring that he acknowledges Haslem’s value to the organization. Haslem, the only other holdover besides Wade from the 2006 championship team, is the Heat’s second best player, their most consistent rebounder, and an incredibly clutch shooter from 16-18 feet. Keeping Haslem, a consistent contributor and possible starter with whom Wade is very close and incredibly comfortable on the basketball court, should be a priority. Wright is expendable, but could prove an economic backup if resigned for at or less than the $2.75 he is due in this, the final year of his contract.

Then there are the enigmas of Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley, the Heat’s top two draft picks from the 2008 draft. Mario Chalmers has struggled with his consistency this season after an impressive rookie campaign in which he started every game and proved to be a dynamic backcourt with Wade, providing a consistent three-point option as well as generating plenty of steals. Chalmers should be retained, if only because he represents cheap labor. The Heat have a $847,000 team option for next season that would provide a backup point guard, and possibly a starter, at as much of a discount as they’re likely to find in the market this summer.

Beasley, on the other hand, should be shown the exit. It’s tough to swallow, but it appears that Beasley was, if not a bust, surely not worthy of the second pick that the Heat spent on him two years ago. The monstrous statistics he put up in his freshman year of college have simply not translated to the NBA. He has difficulty scoring against the physically imposing defenses in the league, his shot is streaky at best, and his rebounding has suffered now that he doesn’t hold a physical advantage over his opponents. Add to that his off court issues and lack of focus and discipline in late game situations, and you’d be hard pressed to justify spending the $5 million he would be due next season. His offensive promise is unquestioned, and there will likely be a team out there willing to take a gamble on his upside, specifically in a deal that would be designed to clear cap space for Miami. Beasley could thus be gotten on the cheap, and the Heat could be rid of their failed project in the hopes of building a contender with the money freed up. That brings us to the main event (although how everything will shake out chronologically is the basis of much speculation): assembling a contender. The formula is pretty simple. The Heat won a championship in 2006 with a young Dwyane Wade and an old Shaquille O’Neal. 2006 was Wade’s coming out party, and Shaq’s last year of real dominance. Following that logic, an older Wade in his prime plus another all star in his prime should again catapult the Heat to the upper reaches of the league’s pecking order. It’s only fitting that three of the top four free agents, aside from Optimus and Wade himself, are big men. Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, and Carlos Boozer have all shown the ability to play both power forward and center. Any one of them would slide into the 5 slot that has been vacant since Shaq was shipped to the Phoenix. Center is, of course, the Heat’s biggest need, as the position has only technically been filled in the past couple years by the undersized Haslem and the corpses of Jamal Magloire and Jermaine O’Neal. Stoudemire was nearly traded to Miami at the trade deadline this season, Boozer is on record stating his preference for Miami (he has a house there), and Bosh is widely reported to be seeking to ply his trade somewhere in the south after being trapped with playoff nonentities Toronto.

Of course, then there’s the pipe dream of pairing Wade with Optimus and bringing showtime to South Florida. I’ll be the first to admit that the odds are extremely long, and so won’t spend much time on it, but allow yourself a moment to share the fantasy. How would you play LeBron and Wade if you couldn’t double either of them, because to do so would be to automatically give the other two points?

But before any of this even matters to Miami, they have to ensure that Wade resigns. The repeated insinuations by the Celtics’ color commentator during game four that “this could be Wade’s last game in a Heat uniform” were certainly unnerving. As if! The proposition is a doomsday scenario, and would spell the crippling of the franchise, even if the Heat did sign another all star. I, for one, choose to take solace in Wade’s increasingly suggestive comments in recent interviews while nervously awaiting this summer’s soap opera to unfold. “I’ve said it all year. My heart is here. Everybody knows me, I’m mostly heart more so than anything. That’s all I can say. My heart is in Miami and if everything works out I’ll be in Miami again.” And if everything does work out, Miami, and the NBA, very well might be on the verge of birthing a new basketballing dynasty, one that would demand the creation of an entirely new slang lexicon where “talking to the hand” means the affirmation of greatness. Word? Word.           

            

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Greg Oden STARTING for the Miami Heat Tonight

Greg Oden will not only be suiting up for today's game against the Bulls, but he will be in the starting lineup. This marks the first time that Oden will be in an NBA starting lineup since December 2009 and bodes extremely well for the Heat. He's been playing relatively regularly with no notable setbacks (crossing fingers). Miami's training staff has done a great job staying disciplined with its approach to getting Oden back into shape so that he can make an impact in the playoffs against Indiana for the ECF and whoever comes out of the Western Conference for the Finals. With Lebron sitting out this afternoon to nurse his broken nose, this should be a good spark for Miami.

It should be interesting to see how many minutes Oden logs this afternoon. His conditioning is getting better, but he still has only broken double digits in minutes a couple times thus far. I'd like to see him get at least 15 minutes tonight. Starting should help him stay warm when he re-enters the game (to start the second half) while giving him plenty of rest in between spurts on the court.

Saturday, February 22, 2014

Granger to Heat?

It's unlikely that Philadelphia agrees to buy out Danny Granger's contract for the remainder of the year. But, if for some reason this actually does happen, that opens the window for Granger to go to the Heat, which will make the Turner/Allen-Granger Trade a colossal mistake for Indiana. Even if everything goes right though, it seems like Granger might prefer to go to the Thunder or Spurs. Both of those teams might actually have the ability to afford to pay him on a new deal next year and can offer Granger significant playing time. The Spurs have a knack for salvaging veteran players whose careers have been threatened by prolonged injury or other fit issues and Granger would be a great fit in their system. The Heat, on the other hand, have also demonstrated the fountain-of-youth-type ability to resuscitate the careers of yesterday's stars. Granger would have to hold a serious grudge against Indiana to run off and join the Heat, but if he's truly hungry for a championship, he might just do that. Miami is probably the best stage for him to show off the mark he can make on a new team and the role he will be able to play on a championship contender; he needs to prove he can still make a big impact in order to get the type of new contract he would have been all but guaranteed had he not continued to have injury struggles over the past couple of years.

Still, any scenario in which Granger leaves the Sixers before the end of this season remains a long shot, even if Granger gives the them a big financial break on the buyout. Essentially, they would have been giving up Lavoy Allen and Evan Turner for some minor salary relief and a second round pick if they agreed to that. Granted, that situation isn't terrible, but you'd have to assume Sam Hinkie was intrigued by the sign-and-trade possibilities for Granger to squeeze out another pick or two or some more cash when he made this deal. If the Sixers got Granger to buy into the idea that he was showcasing himself for his next contract, he could fit well into their permanent fast-break style of offense and really pad his stats.