So, I was clearly wrong about the Heat winning in 6 or less. The deck is stacked against them right now, and they haven't oozed the confidence that they have in the past. However, San Antonio knows it would be a grave mistake to think they have this in the bag. They are drawing on last year's experience and reliving the Ray Allen shot over and over again to motivate themselves.
If any team in history has the talent to come back from a 3-1 deficit in the Finals, it is this Miami Heat team. Some incredible performances from Wade, LeBron, and Bosh can really make things happen. The Spurs have had the benefit of those incredible performances in Games 3 and 4.
Winning tonight will be huge for the Heat's confidence. They will feel great coming home and needing to win to get to a Game 7 to determine the fate of their three-peat. The prospects of beating San Antonio three consecutive games and twice on the road are really slim, but this team has relied on sheer talent to win games and to dig deep and I don't expect them to crumble.
As much as it has pained me to watch the Heat get destroyed over the past two games, I have kept watching until the very last minute because I know how quickly they can turn things around for the better. That's the joy of watching this Heat team. They can do anything. I hate to quote Kevin Garnett, but "anything is possible."
Showing posts with label NBA playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA playoffs. Show all posts
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Sunday, June 8, 2014
LeBron Will Rise to the Task
Tonight, after all the backlash against LeBron, he's going to do what he always does when his back is against the wall and have a legendary performance. I don't expect it to quite reach Game 6 Boston levels, but he is going to be super-aggressive (and hopefully, super-hydrated as well) and really make his mark on this game. It should be a close game, but I think Miami will get the much-coveted split tonight. In the 2-2-1-1-1 format that the NBA finally switched back to for the Finals, home court advantage is even more important. Miami really won't want to go home in a 2-0 hole, where the Spurs can steal a close game and then come home for Game 5 to finish them off. Consequently, you can expect the Big Three to be incredibly aggressive tonight on defense. They're going to try to smother Danny Green, and make sure they're chasing him off the line at all time. While it would be nice if Bosh could play better defense on Duncan, I think the Heat are content to let him get his 25-10 stats as long as the three point shooters are kept in check and Parker isn't going nuts creating easy dump-offs after his drives.
Tonight's game should be a tight one because the Spurs don't often get complacent (especially after last year's Finals debacle for them) like the Heat are prone to do when their backs aren't against the wall. But, I expect Miami to snag a game tonight and win Game 3 on an emotionally-charged home court in a couple days.
With no Lance Stephenson antics, no A/C failures, and no other silly distractions from the great basketball being played, the rest of this series should be exactly what it has been billed as...a hotly (no pun intended) contested match-up of two NBA teams who will already be known as some of the best teams in league history.
Side Note: We're going to have a Super Mario Chalmers sighting. Less turnovers, more high-arcing threes.
Tonight's game should be a tight one because the Spurs don't often get complacent (especially after last year's Finals debacle for them) like the Heat are prone to do when their backs aren't against the wall. But, I expect Miami to snag a game tonight and win Game 3 on an emotionally-charged home court in a couple days.
With no Lance Stephenson antics, no A/C failures, and no other silly distractions from the great basketball being played, the rest of this series should be exactly what it has been billed as...a hotly (no pun intended) contested match-up of two NBA teams who will already be known as some of the best teams in league history.
Side Note: We're going to have a Super Mario Chalmers sighting. Less turnovers, more high-arcing threes.
Friday, June 6, 2014
Cramps and Stupid Tweets
Twitter was ablaze with baseless hatred and vitriol spewed toward LeBron, as usual, after last night's sweltering heat and resultant cramps. LeBron has had problems with cramps in the past, such as during the game in the 2012 Finals against OKC. If you remember that, you'll think of LeBron limping back onto the court and nailing a dagger three. If you don't, you might want to watch it again:
Of course, no one mentions this when they talk about LeBron not having grit and not fighting through pain. You want to compare other guys limping over and taking free throws (which don't require jumping, or moving, by the way) while hurt, but not compare LeBron to himself two years ago. Trust me, if there was any way his body would let him continue, he would have. In fact, he already was doing so after several cramps earlier in the game. He has quadriceps the size of a horse's and when they fail and start uncontrollably spasm-ing, it's not fun. This isn't an issue of playing through pain; it's an issue of simply not being able to continue in a way that helps his team. Risking further injury in that ridiculous environment when he was clearly dehydrated and exhausted would not have been heroic. It would have been idiotic. Spoelstra and the training staff instantly told him he could not continue; otherwise, he would have been on the floor stretching it out, pounding Gatorade, and taking potassium pills or other sources of electrolytes.
Plain and simple, the Heat should have won Game 1. This isn't to say they definitely would have, but they dominated the game up through that point, and things only changed when LeBron came out. Let's answer a couple common criticisms from last night, through the lens of dumb trolling tweets:
1. Kobe injury comparisons -
Yes, Kobe shot free throws after tearing his Achilles. Not a huge deal; if LeBron needed to do that, he definitely could have and would have. He's shot free throws with his left hand before. He has played through pain and cramps before, which by the way, are completely different. Did he need to be carried off the court? Probably not. But, his teammates didn't know what was wrong necessarily and there is no badge of honor associated with walking off the court on your own volition when you could risk further injury with a cramping and spasming muscle. It's just stupid. If you want to talk about something stupid, let's talk about Paul Pierce's dramatic return from the locker room in a wheelchair.
The bottom line here is that the comparison is stupid. Here's a comparison: Kobe sat out this season. LeBron is in the Finals, again.
2. "The heat affected both teams equally."
Well, thank you for your in-depth analysis! The simple fact for anyone who knows anything about basketball is that the Spurs are much deeper team and that is their strength. Popovich plays rotations just like the one he played in Game 1 that rest his Big Three and rely on the supporting cast to do the rest. The Heat were constructed as a top-heavy team that relies primarily on heavy minutes and contributions from Wade, James, and Bosh. They got that contribution, but only for 33 minutes.
3. Michael Jordan played in the "flu" game and other people have played injured.
Yes, Jordan's flu game was impressive. Do I think LeBron could have done it given the opportunity? Definitely. How many games has LeBron missed for injury or illness that were not preventive maintenance in the past few season? Not many. Definitely less than Jordan. DEFINITELY less than Kobe.
LeBron has played through cramps before, and done so in a meaningful way to win a game in the Finals...don't forget that. He also frequently rolls his ankle or hurts his back or a number of other ailments and plays through it without any complaint. He is the most durable player in the league and has proven his grit time and time again.
4. "LeBron cramped up, but no one else did."
Here's a suggestion why that might be the case...he is more athletic, relies on that athleticism for his game, and uses it more than any other player on the floor. He's not Mr. Fundamental like Duncan...he does absolutely EVERYTHING on both sides of the ball. Leads the team in assists, points, and rebounds on almost any given night while being their best defensive player. He guards Parker, Green, Leonard, and Duncan. He is guarded by Diaw and Leonard. I think it's fair to say he exerts a considerable amount more energy than anyone on the floor. I'm sure if you measured how many calories he was burning out there, he would be putting everyone else to shame just like he does by any other statistical measure. There are no excuses for him, and he isn't looking for any. The Heat still could have won, but this just put another stumbling block in their way (and a big one). The hate he gets for it is crazy.
You know what LeBron James never did? Leave the sport of basketball in his prime to play another sport that he was pretty terrible at. Jordan is celebrated for that, but if LeBron went off to play football for a year (which he would instantly be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at), he would be absolutely vilified for it...let alone if he went to play minor league baseball. I don't mean this to criticize Jordan, but merely to draw a comparison between the type of media and Internet criticism that LeBron is subjected to. Yes, he has brought some of it upon himself by opening up his life to the media and being a playful personality. When you have your own app about you, you're kind of asking for it.
The simple fact is that LeBron gets way too much criticism, and it's just stupid. He's the best basketball player in the world right now, and he is making a legitimate run at being the best ever. You said he's not clutch? You've already been proven wrong. (Yes, he did have a period where everyone saying he wasn't clutch became a self-fulfilling prophecy and made him less clutch; that period is over.) Yes, he passes sometimes (to wide-open, great shooters) when he should just selfishly assert his own dominance. That's better than missing on a forced shot like Kobe is so fond of doing.
Anyone talking about his cramps has never played a sport in their life, or at least hasn't played it hard enough to know what a cramp feels like. It's a muscular shut-down accompanied by intense fleeting pain that you wish would be over, but won't end.
Well, that's the end of my LeBron James defense for the day. Heat in 6, still. Game 1 road win would have just been a dagger, and it's a shame the Heat didn't grab it.
Of course, no one mentions this when they talk about LeBron not having grit and not fighting through pain. You want to compare other guys limping over and taking free throws (which don't require jumping, or moving, by the way) while hurt, but not compare LeBron to himself two years ago. Trust me, if there was any way his body would let him continue, he would have. In fact, he already was doing so after several cramps earlier in the game. He has quadriceps the size of a horse's and when they fail and start uncontrollably spasm-ing, it's not fun. This isn't an issue of playing through pain; it's an issue of simply not being able to continue in a way that helps his team. Risking further injury in that ridiculous environment when he was clearly dehydrated and exhausted would not have been heroic. It would have been idiotic. Spoelstra and the training staff instantly told him he could not continue; otherwise, he would have been on the floor stretching it out, pounding Gatorade, and taking potassium pills or other sources of electrolytes.
Plain and simple, the Heat should have won Game 1. This isn't to say they definitely would have, but they dominated the game up through that point, and things only changed when LeBron came out. Let's answer a couple common criticisms from last night, through the lens of dumb trolling tweets:
1. Kobe injury comparisons -
Yes, Kobe shot free throws after tearing his Achilles. Not a huge deal; if LeBron needed to do that, he definitely could have and would have. He's shot free throws with his left hand before. He has played through pain and cramps before, which by the way, are completely different. Did he need to be carried off the court? Probably not. But, his teammates didn't know what was wrong necessarily and there is no badge of honor associated with walking off the court on your own volition when you could risk further injury with a cramping and spasming muscle. It's just stupid. If you want to talk about something stupid, let's talk about Paul Pierce's dramatic return from the locker room in a wheelchair.
Maybe Lebron should watch Kobe shoot two free throws and walk off the court with a torn Achilles before he gets carried off the court again
— Josh Mobley (@Josh_Mobley) June 6, 2014
The bottom line here is that the comparison is stupid. Here's a comparison: Kobe sat out this season. LeBron is in the Finals, again.
2. "The heat affected both teams equally."
This heat analyst is a jackass. Both teams played with the AC off lmao wtf. You act like the spurs had AC
— Persian Amir (@AmirLakersFan24) June 6, 2014
Well, thank you for your in-depth analysis! The simple fact for anyone who knows anything about basketball is that the Spurs are much deeper team and that is their strength. Popovich plays rotations just like the one he played in Game 1 that rest his Big Three and rely on the supporting cast to do the rest. The Heat were constructed as a top-heavy team that relies primarily on heavy minutes and contributions from Wade, James, and Bosh. They got that contribution, but only for 33 minutes.
3. Michael Jordan played in the "flu" game and other people have played injured.
Yes, Jordan's flu game was impressive. Do I think LeBron could have done it given the opportunity? Definitely. How many games has LeBron missed for injury or illness that were not preventive maintenance in the past few season? Not many. Definitely less than Jordan. DEFINITELY less than Kobe.
Jordan played a game with the flu. Isaiah played a game with one leg. Magic played games with HIV. But LeBron can't play with a cramp? Ok
— Hall of Fame (@HOFSportsTalk) June 6, 2014
LeBron has played through cramps before, and done so in a meaningful way to win a game in the Finals...don't forget that. He also frequently rolls his ankle or hurts his back or a number of other ailments and plays through it without any complaint. He is the most durable player in the league and has proven his grit time and time again.
Here's him playing through back pain:
Here's him dropping 33 on the Pacers after a bad ankle sprain:
Here's him coming back from the same injury (in air-conditioning this time) to spark the rally to win a Playoff game this year:
Almost forgot this one...here's him dropping 61 on the Bobcats with a broken nose:
And, his own flu game...granted, much less important:
You know what's better than playing through pain and other circumstances? Being superhuman, never missing games, and almost never getting hurt. That's what LeBron gives you. And, when he does get hurt, he plays through it.
4. "LeBron cramped up, but no one else did."
@NBA why did lebron cramp, but no one else? #therealquestion
— Mark Shadden (@MarkShadden1) June 6, 2014
Here's a suggestion why that might be the case...he is more athletic, relies on that athleticism for his game, and uses it more than any other player on the floor. He's not Mr. Fundamental like Duncan...he does absolutely EVERYTHING on both sides of the ball. Leads the team in assists, points, and rebounds on almost any given night while being their best defensive player. He guards Parker, Green, Leonard, and Duncan. He is guarded by Diaw and Leonard. I think it's fair to say he exerts a considerable amount more energy than anyone on the floor. I'm sure if you measured how many calories he was burning out there, he would be putting everyone else to shame just like he does by any other statistical measure. There are no excuses for him, and he isn't looking for any. The Heat still could have won, but this just put another stumbling block in their way (and a big one). The hate he gets for it is crazy.
You know what LeBron James never did? Leave the sport of basketball in his prime to play another sport that he was pretty terrible at. Jordan is celebrated for that, but if LeBron went off to play football for a year (which he would instantly be a Pro-Bowl caliber player at), he would be absolutely vilified for it...let alone if he went to play minor league baseball. I don't mean this to criticize Jordan, but merely to draw a comparison between the type of media and Internet criticism that LeBron is subjected to. Yes, he has brought some of it upon himself by opening up his life to the media and being a playful personality. When you have your own app about you, you're kind of asking for it.
The simple fact is that LeBron gets way too much criticism, and it's just stupid. He's the best basketball player in the world right now, and he is making a legitimate run at being the best ever. You said he's not clutch? You've already been proven wrong. (Yes, he did have a period where everyone saying he wasn't clutch became a self-fulfilling prophecy and made him less clutch; that period is over.) Yes, he passes sometimes (to wide-open, great shooters) when he should just selfishly assert his own dominance. That's better than missing on a forced shot like Kobe is so fond of doing.
Anyone talking about his cramps has never played a sport in their life, or at least hasn't played it hard enough to know what a cramp feels like. It's a muscular shut-down accompanied by intense fleeting pain that you wish would be over, but won't end.
Well, that's the end of my LeBron James defense for the day. Heat in 6, still. Game 1 road win would have just been a dagger, and it's a shame the Heat didn't grab it.
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Why the Heat Will Beat the Spurs in 6 Games or Less
San Antonio has had this mental image burning in their minds for the past year, repeating on an infinite loop like an annoying GIF:
It's motivated them to get through the West and secure home court advantage for the Finals. They're relatively healthy, and couldn't have prepared themselves better. Add that to the fact that Popovich knows how to neutralize LeBron (as much as he can be neutralized) by forcing him to take jumpers and frustrating him to the point where he doesn't even try to be aggressive and drive anymore, and the fact that Kawhi Leonard (or the less-athletic Boris Diaw, who does a decent job on LeBron bothering him with his size) is freakishly athletic and has the wingspan and energy to pester LeBron continuously, and you'd think that the Spurs should be favored in this series. Miami's tendency to only play to their potential when their backs are truly against the wall and the Spurs tendency to do everything right at all times and get production from even their worst role players bode very well for the Spurs.
However, here are 6 keys (assist to my good friend +Joshua Etzion) that will put the Heat over the top:
1. Wade has been well-rested all year and is now playing incredibly efficiently and well in these Playoffs. Last year, he was so hurt that his knee was being drained before most games and he had 8 hours of therapy per day; he was so bad that he wasn't in the crunch time lineup that gave the Heat the initial 4th quarter lead in Game 6, and Spoelstra gave him Greg Oden-esque minutes (obviously, a little exaggeration here). Wade, ever the fierce competitor, went so far as to tell Spoelstra, "Don't play me." Every time he's doubted, he gets back up and plays like his dominant self. This is the narrative I see for him in the Finals:
Manu Ginobili might have a similarly good Eurostep, but he sure isn't going to be a defensive threat to Wade. The Spurs don't have anyone who Wade can't totally dominate his match-up against. A healthy Wade shifts some attention away from LeBron and stifles Pop's game plan, opening up driving lanes and corner 3s for guys like Lewis and Allen. Healthy Dwyane = 4 rings.
2. Danny Green set the Finals record for 3 point shots made. If history or statistics are any indication, this isn't going to happen again. Without him providing that 60+% 3PT shot threat, the Heat can pack the paint more on Parker and Ginobili drives and concentrate more on Duncan and Splitter when they're in. Miami should be a better 3PT shooting team than San Antonio given that they boast a roster with all-time greats from behind the arc like Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen while having Chalmers, an improved Cole, and Battier. Even Wade has been hitting threes! And, I haven't seen that happening since his "talk to the hand" days pre-Big Three era.
3. Gary Neal was spelling a tired Parker and an underperforming Ginobili for most of the series last year. When the Heat should have otherwise been punishing the Spurs bench with those guys out, Neal was shooting a ridiculous percentage from behind the arc on Danny Green-esque levels. He was nailing absurd buzzer beaters and looked like an All-Star out there.
Gary Neal couldn't replicate this performance (see, Heat sweep of Spurs a few weeks ago) if he were still around, and neither will Marco Bellinelli in his stead.
4. Duncan and Parker were other-worldly in last year's Finals, but won't be this year. Duncan had All-Star stats after the first half in a few games and dominated his match-up with Bosh. Bosh will take that personally this year and the Heat will do a much better job neutralizing the offensive threat that Duncan poses. When LeBron is on Parker, he should obviously have the edge in that match-up. This simply won't happen again. I fully expect Duncan and Parker to be great as they always are, but the performances they had last year just won't be replicated this year. If Parker's hamstring and ankle injuries haven't been exaggerated and are still nagging him, this could slow him down. Their best player is less healthy than Dwyane Wade is. Think about that for a second and if you ever could have envisioned that happening for these Finals after all Wade has been through with his knee.
5. Bosh has a new weapon in his arsenal. A great three point shot and a penchant for hitting it in the big moments. Miami don't need to rely on Shane Battier to stretch the floor and nail 7 threes (which obviously is unlikely to happen again). Miami doesn't need to rely on a shoeless Mike Miller (now Rashard Lewis) for a magical performance. Bosh's three point shot will help draw Duncan, Splitter, and/or Diaw out of the paint and stretch the floor such that Pop's plan to pack the paint against LeBron and Wade will be severely hampered. If they keep to their plan, which they probably will (Spurs can definitely stay disciplined), Bosh will have tons of wide open three point shots available to him. And he'll hit them at a clip above 40% I would bet. Bosh is going to have a big series after a few duds last year, and he's going to remind everyone who keeps calling the Big Three just Wade and James why he took his talents to South Beach.
6. The Spurs can't just pack the paint and dare LeBron to shoot jumpers. Not only will he ready for that and Spoelstra's game-plan already incorporate ways to get him loose, but he also just won't be surprised by it or made uncomfortable like he was early on in the series last year. LeBron shot ~80% on his jab-step jumpers from near the elbow. That simply wasn't the case last year, or against the Mavs in 2011. Daring him to shoot might be the best way to try neutralize him, but it won't succeed like it has in the past. His game has evolved and every team tries to do this against him now. Granted, the Spurs are way better at executing it, but LeBron's talent will just be too much to overcome.
Last year, you saw LeBron realize that if he took off his headband and focused completely and entirely on the task at hand, he could beat any odds. I expect him to bring that confidence and effort to this series, and truly have a career defining performance in these Finals a la 2006 Dwyane Wade. Miami understands the opportunity here, and the implications that losing would have for their legacy and for the team staying together for the next few years. Don't count on them blowing any more opportunities.
Heat in 6. LeBron with 3 rings and a winning record in the Finals. Wade with four rings. Allen with three rings. Oden with more rings than Durant. Money in the bank for everyone who bet for the Heat to win this year at +190 odds.
Thursday, May 29, 2014
The Squeaky Wheel Got the Grease, But It's Going to Fall Off: The End of the Road for the Pacers
The Squeaky Wheel Gets the Grease: that's what my grandmother always told me when I was growing up, and she certainly led by example. However, the important point she taught me was that you shouldn't abuse the opportunity to "squeak." Paul George and the Indiana Pacers did just that by complaining about the foul differential about the Heat in their post-game press conferences after Game 4. That wasn't the reason you guys got blown out, Paul, and there were really only one or two bad calls that didn't change the game meaningfully at all.
To be clear, the reason the Heat fouled way less than the Pacers was because they played with much more intensity, effort, focus, and just general crispness. I know it's a popular trope to say that LeBron gets superstar calls, and he does sometimes; however, far more often, LeBron doesn't get the same kind of touch fouls or other types of loose ball or open court fouls that other players (far less "superstar" caliber players) get. Kevin Durant seems to get a heck of a lot more calls than LeBron, especially on his drives. This is because Durant is simply less of a physical presence, and so fouls look worse against him. LeBron is such an athletic freak that some of those touch fouls barely bother him or alter the course of a shot; but, when the tables are turned, those touch fouls go against LeBron.
Four out of the five fouls called against LeBron were absolutely egregious:
After watching the referees needlessly ruin Game 5 with terrible foul calls against LeBron, it's pretty clear that there must have been some motivation to rectify the foul disparity at any cost. Once LeBron picked up his third foul and had to sit out a large portion of the first half, the refs relentlessly continued calling stupid fouls against him. The charge call against Paul George who literally was on one leg having leaped in front of LeBron off-balance is a textbook blocking foul in that scenario. Meanwhile, with the Pacers only even somewhat successful strategy (publicly and privately) being to frustrate LeBron with Stephenson's childish antics, the refs chose not to call obvious flops by Stephenson (especially after the 5th foul was called):
How this play wasn't called a flop is crazy to me; Stephenson should have been given at least three technical fouls over the course of the game and been ejected after the second, but that didn't happen. The NBA needs to send a message that such antics will not be tolerated because all it does is tarnish the brand and product that they are putting on the court. (Yes, Heat players have been guilty of flopping at times too, but nothing this terrible and this persistent accompanied by other childish antics). At very least, Stephenson needs to be fined twice for this game, and should possibly even be suspended for a game (and might be if this were not the postseason or if Frank Vogel had any control over his team). Maybe in his game off, he can fly to New York and practice tying his shoes with JR Smith while they blow in each other's ears.
Heat fans are certainly not going to get any sympathy about calls, but that narrative is backwards and broken. LeBron is hurt by the things that make him a superstar (his athleticism, speed, and size) more than the fringe benefits of being a superstar (getting "superstar" calls). At crucial times, he doesn't get the calls that a "superstar" would get. That would be OK normally, but there's been a huge overcorrection and overcompensation for his perceived superstar treatment. Time to get back to reality, Ed Malloy and company...
To be clear, the reason the Heat fouled way less than the Pacers was because they played with much more intensity, effort, focus, and just general crispness. I know it's a popular trope to say that LeBron gets superstar calls, and he does sometimes; however, far more often, LeBron doesn't get the same kind of touch fouls or other types of loose ball or open court fouls that other players (far less "superstar" caliber players) get. Kevin Durant seems to get a heck of a lot more calls than LeBron, especially on his drives. This is because Durant is simply less of a physical presence, and so fouls look worse against him. LeBron is such an athletic freak that some of those touch fouls barely bother him or alter the course of a shot; but, when the tables are turned, those touch fouls go against LeBron.
Four out of the five fouls called against LeBron were absolutely egregious:
After watching the referees needlessly ruin Game 5 with terrible foul calls against LeBron, it's pretty clear that there must have been some motivation to rectify the foul disparity at any cost. Once LeBron picked up his third foul and had to sit out a large portion of the first half, the refs relentlessly continued calling stupid fouls against him. The charge call against Paul George who literally was on one leg having leaped in front of LeBron off-balance is a textbook blocking foul in that scenario. Meanwhile, with the Pacers only even somewhat successful strategy (publicly and privately) being to frustrate LeBron with Stephenson's childish antics, the refs chose not to call obvious flops by Stephenson (especially after the 5th foul was called):
How this play wasn't called a flop is crazy to me; Stephenson should have been given at least three technical fouls over the course of the game and been ejected after the second, but that didn't happen. The NBA needs to send a message that such antics will not be tolerated because all it does is tarnish the brand and product that they are putting on the court. (Yes, Heat players have been guilty of flopping at times too, but nothing this terrible and this persistent accompanied by other childish antics). At very least, Stephenson needs to be fined twice for this game, and should possibly even be suspended for a game (and might be if this were not the postseason or if Frank Vogel had any control over his team). Maybe in his game off, he can fly to New York and practice tying his shoes with JR Smith while they blow in each other's ears.
Heat fans are certainly not going to get any sympathy about calls, but that narrative is backwards and broken. LeBron is hurt by the things that make him a superstar (his athleticism, speed, and size) more than the fringe benefits of being a superstar (getting "superstar" calls). At crucial times, he doesn't get the calls that a "superstar" would get. That would be OK normally, but there's been a huge overcorrection and overcompensation for his perceived superstar treatment. Time to get back to reality, Ed Malloy and company...
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Heat Win in 5, As Predicted
Miami pulled it off in 5, just as I predicted in my post earlier last week.
Here's the play that essentially ended Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnetts' NBA careers...unfortunately, for them, they didn't really have anything to do with it:
LeBron was simply incredible, despite the quadruple-teams and strong traps he was commanding all night. The shooters, ranging from Ray Allen to Big Shot Bosh really pulled through in the clutch.
Birdman had some incredible tip out rebounds early in the game. His athleticism might be waning, but his effort certainly isn't. I really hope he can continue to contribute at this incredible leave. if he stays in Miami next year. For reference, he has one of the highest PERs in the Playoffs behind a couple of superstars. He's an incredibly underrated player, and will be key to the Heat's championship aspirations.
Bring on the Wizards.
Here's the play that essentially ended Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnetts' NBA careers...unfortunately, for them, they didn't really have anything to do with it:
LeBron was simply incredible, despite the quadruple-teams and strong traps he was commanding all night. The shooters, ranging from Ray Allen to Big Shot Bosh really pulled through in the clutch.
Birdman had some incredible tip out rebounds early in the game. His athleticism might be waning, but his effort certainly isn't. I really hope he can continue to contribute at this incredible leave. if he stays in Miami next year. For reference, he has one of the highest PERs in the Playoffs behind a couple of superstars. He's an incredibly underrated player, and will be key to the Heat's championship aspirations.
Bring on the Wizards.
Saturday, April 26, 2014
How the Clippers and the NBA Should React to Donald Sterling's Most Recent Racist Outburst
Donald Sterling is well-known for his outlandish remarks, largely unsuccessful stint as owner of the Clippers, and not-so-subtle racism. He's been sued in federal court for it and he's been caught on tape and on camera saying some pretty outlandish things. He even was sued by Elgin Baylor for asking prospective coaching candidates how they think they'd be able to "coach these N***ers?"
While Sterling holds back on some of the more virulent racism that may or may not be going through his head during the conversation, he very clearly exhibits the type of "plantation owner" mentality that has unfortunately plagued professional sports leagues like the NBA and NFL for years. This, along with Dan Gilbert's 2010 Summer rant against LeBron (which is a less clear example of racism, and a more clear example of an arrogant man who has often demanded a higher platform when he speaks in public), are unfortunate reminders of the omnipresent specter of race-related issues in sports and society today. The idea that Sterling conveys to this woman on the phone--that it's OK for him to associate with these people because they work for him and ostensibly make him money, but not for her to so because she is a "delicate woman" is problematic on many levels including but not at all limited to the following:
Everyone has recognized him as the worst owner in the NBA for quite some time, but no one has done anything about it because the narrative has always taken the shape of "Sterling hasn't producde a winning team more than twice in the past 30 years" rather than "Sterling thinks of himself like a plantation owner." However, quietly, everyone in the upper echelons of the NBA has recognized him as the racist he truly is.
Frankly, there's nothing much they really could have done about it besides send him official warning letters or small (relative to his $1.9b net worth) fines much like employees' minor infractions are dealt with by companies. However, this isn't the case anymore in the era where players are fined for every little behavioral infraction, on and off the court. The NFL (and the Eagles) fined and suspended Riley Cooper for his comments, which weren't nearly as hateful as Donald Sterling's pervasive racism. Cooper was outcasted (at least temporarily) by his team, and other teams relished the chance to hit him (which you can't really do in the NBA unless you are Josh McRoberts or Nene) and it was at least somewhat of a teachable moment. Under David Stern's leadership, Sterling has enjoyed a type of "ownership immunity" that not even coaches, GMs and other front-office staff, and certainly players have enjoyed. It's almost like he's in the CIA, but hiding under the blanket of "diplomatic immunity."
While I think that some of the NBA's (and NFL's) policing of the personal lives of its players (except when it involves serious allegations of criminality) is an overstepping of its authority, it's warranted in many cases. It's especially warranted because these conduct policies are codified in the leagues' respective collective bargaining agreements, and so both sides have agreed that it is reasonable and bargained for it to some extent.
However, this situation is particularly poignant because it doesn't just involve some random racist remark (which would still be deplorable, of course,) but it involves Magic Johnson. Magic Johnson has been an ambassador for the game, and is responsible in large part for the huge growth in popularity of the league (and thus, by extension, the owners' fortunes to the extent that they run their teams as profitable businesses). For an NBA owner to tell his girlfriend (or paramour, if you're feeling particularly NSFW Game of Thrones-ish) to not bring Magic Johnson (or any other minorities) is absolutely a relevant and disciplinable offense in the NBA.
However, Adam Silver (as representative of the owners' and thus partially as representative of Sterling) is put in a strange position here. This will be the first major crisis of his tenure as commissioner, and I'm sure he will be in close consultation with David Stern about what he should do. His range of actions is fairly limited, but he should still take them. Then, he should facilitate or at very least rely on the groundswell of anti-Sterling sentiment that will undoubtedly arise across the league and try to push Sterling out of the league. Whatever the punishment should be, it should be a fine levied directly on Sterling, and not a punishment on the players (i.e., forfeiture of future draft picks, etc.)
While we might ask players to take a stand---and I'm sure some high profile players will---it's a very difficult position to put them in for them to be asked to boycott (lose money), forfeit (lose money and set back their basketball careers), not want to play for the Clippers (which would either make turn the Clippers into a team of non-minorities willing to tolerate Sterling's racism, and also make basketball players have less opportunities by limiting the already limited amount of roster spots available - i.e. jobs), or make a symbolic gesture against their owner and boss (risking contract extensions for anyone but the biggest star players). However, the high-profile players, like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan can and should organize a symbolic action in defiance of Donald Sterling to encourage the groundswell of popular opinion necessary to force Sterling to publicly apologize, step down, sell, or some other appropriate course of action.
Chris Paul is in a unique position as leader of the players association, but it's unfair for him to have to focus on something like this in the midst of an important playoff series. However, those are the realities of life. Despite the bad blood between the Clippers and Warriors, I'm sure that Doc Rivers, Mark Jackson, and their respective players would be more than happy to cooperate to denounce Sterling's action by doing something like delaying the start of the game, wearing anti-racism patches or insignias on their jerseys, or demanding a public apology from Sterling in order for the game to begin. If both teams were to cooperate on something like this, it would force the league to do something. And, in order to protect the image and profitability of the league, they would certainly do whatever they had to do to Sterling in order to make this awesome playoff series go on. The winner of the other side of the bracket needs an opponent, and they aren't just going to let them go on with a bye if these two teams refuse to play.
Some options are as follows for the players/coaches, and should be led and organized by the prominent players:
1. Immediately file a (possibly, class-action) employment discrimination lawsuit on behalf of the NBA Players Association against Donald Sterling for creating a hostile work environment and a litany of other offenses. This wouldn't require much effort from Chris Paul and he could have legal counsel do it all, file something preliminary for the signaling effect, and continue pursuing the litigation after the playoffs. The NBA should also be named as a defendant in this lawsuit in order to force their hand.
While I haven't dug into the mechanics of how this would go down, I'm almost certain that it could happen in at least some productive fashion. At very least, it's a legal strategy that forces the NBA to take action on what it should have taken action on decades ago. Any kind of retaliation (not extending contracts, defaming them, docking them pay) by Sterling against players would be a serious violation of employment discrimination law. (An interesting thing to note, depending on how this recording was actually obtained, is its admissibility as evidence in a court proceeding.
This evidentiary issue would be a non-issue if Sterling tries to issue some kind of public acknowledgement and/or apology, which I'm sure his PR people and the rest of the Clippers organization will highly recommend he do...better consult with counsel about that first, Donald.) It's also possible that the CBA prevents such a suit, but there are almost certainly ways around that, and the CBA probably includes an arbitration clause under which Sterling would almost certainly lose in front of a neutral arbitrator. The CBA, however, might not apply if there is some kind of antitrust related action or really weird incarnation of a shareholder derivative suit or fiduciary duty suit initiated the rest of the owners of the NBA. It's pretty uncharted territory because of the "acceptable monopoly" status of major sports leagues in the United States and the associate anti-trust exemptions, to say the least, but it should definitely be tested. Sterling would almost certainly countersue claiming anti-trust violations, but it wouldn't seem like he'd have much sympathy from any judge, jury, or the public. The suit and the publicity would probably have such a negative spillover effect on his other business ventures that he'd voluntarily settle.
2. Engage in multiple symbolic gestures against Sterling, organized by players and coaches from both teams. Doc Rivers and Mark Jackson have the media clout, respect, and personality to be able to pull this type of thing off. Symbolic gestures would include: delaying the start of the game, refusing to take the floor until a public apology (in the arena) was issued by Sterling (should he choose to attend the game), wearing anti-racism patches on their jerseys, and wearing a symbolic article of clothing or accessory. If both coaches could wear something like this, or players/coaches could give a speech to the crowd before a game, that would also be highly public and highly effective. This might be an area where the NBA can look to the anti-racism campaigns of European soccer teams for some inspiration.
Also, I'm sure there are owners out there like Mark Cuban that can come out and denounce Sterling and demand action. I'm sure there are already a couple who have (or at least, I hope that is the case). Billionaires, as you can see, aren't scared of voicing their opinions loudly and publicly. Guys like Cuban are great for the NBA because they'll tell it like it is. Time to lead the charge, Mark.
It sucks that Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Doc Rivers, Magic Johnson, and other guys are in this super awkward position, but there couldn't be a more likable and accomplished group to lead the charge against Sterling.
Griffin, an affable superhero, and his sidekick should take action immediately. Having the team collectively "do the Blake face" to show their disapproval for Sterling would be hilarious, but not enough.
While Blake and Chris are busy with the playoffs, maybe they can enlist Cliff for an assist, "inspire a new generation of that can't deny the power of an assist, and truly get us to a better state." (Note: this isn't intended to be a Kia or State Farm ad...just a relevant, and kind of stupid joke to demonstrate the media power of guys like Griffin and Paul.)
Here's his latest transgression:
Clippers Owner Donald Sterling to GF - Don't Bring Black People to My Games, Including Magic Johnson
- Watch More
or
While Sterling holds back on some of the more virulent racism that may or may not be going through his head during the conversation, he very clearly exhibits the type of "plantation owner" mentality that has unfortunately plagued professional sports leagues like the NBA and NFL for years. This, along with Dan Gilbert's 2010 Summer rant against LeBron (which is a less clear example of racism, and a more clear example of an arrogant man who has often demanded a higher platform when he speaks in public), are unfortunate reminders of the omnipresent specter of race-related issues in sports and society today. The idea that Sterling conveys to this woman on the phone--that it's OK for him to associate with these people because they work for him and ostensibly make him money, but not for her to so because she is a "delicate woman" is problematic on many levels including but not at all limited to the following:
1. Blatant sexism - "delicate woman," telling her who she can and can't be seen with or photographed with
2. Acknowledgement of his friends' racism - whoever tipped him off to the picture clearly was just as racist and may have triggered this reaction on the part of Sterling
2. Plantation mentality - it's OK to smile and shake hands with Magic Johnson and cheer for his non-white players and coaches because it's all part of a money-making enterprise over which he (thinks he) has total control
4. Subtle implication of the "Dangerous Minority Other"- by framing his girlfriend as the "delicate woman" and dictating her behavior, he juxtaposes that imagery with that of an over-aggressive, untrustworthy, dangerous, and/or violent minority (in this case, a black man)
Everyone has recognized him as the worst owner in the NBA for quite some time, but no one has done anything about it because the narrative has always taken the shape of "Sterling hasn't producde a winning team more than twice in the past 30 years" rather than "Sterling thinks of himself like a plantation owner." However, quietly, everyone in the upper echelons of the NBA has recognized him as the racist he truly is.
Frankly, there's nothing much they really could have done about it besides send him official warning letters or small (relative to his $1.9b net worth) fines much like employees' minor infractions are dealt with by companies. However, this isn't the case anymore in the era where players are fined for every little behavioral infraction, on and off the court. The NFL (and the Eagles) fined and suspended Riley Cooper for his comments, which weren't nearly as hateful as Donald Sterling's pervasive racism. Cooper was outcasted (at least temporarily) by his team, and other teams relished the chance to hit him (which you can't really do in the NBA unless you are Josh McRoberts or Nene) and it was at least somewhat of a teachable moment. Under David Stern's leadership, Sterling has enjoyed a type of "ownership immunity" that not even coaches, GMs and other front-office staff, and certainly players have enjoyed. It's almost like he's in the CIA, but hiding under the blanket of "diplomatic immunity."
While I think that some of the NBA's (and NFL's) policing of the personal lives of its players (except when it involves serious allegations of criminality) is an overstepping of its authority, it's warranted in many cases. It's especially warranted because these conduct policies are codified in the leagues' respective collective bargaining agreements, and so both sides have agreed that it is reasonable and bargained for it to some extent.
However, this situation is particularly poignant because it doesn't just involve some random racist remark (which would still be deplorable, of course,) but it involves Magic Johnson. Magic Johnson has been an ambassador for the game, and is responsible in large part for the huge growth in popularity of the league (and thus, by extension, the owners' fortunes to the extent that they run their teams as profitable businesses). For an NBA owner to tell his girlfriend (or paramour, if you're feeling particularly NSFW Game of Thrones-ish) to not bring Magic Johnson (or any other minorities) is absolutely a relevant and disciplinable offense in the NBA.
However, Adam Silver (as representative of the owners' and thus partially as representative of Sterling) is put in a strange position here. This will be the first major crisis of his tenure as commissioner, and I'm sure he will be in close consultation with David Stern about what he should do. His range of actions is fairly limited, but he should still take them. Then, he should facilitate or at very least rely on the groundswell of anti-Sterling sentiment that will undoubtedly arise across the league and try to push Sterling out of the league. Whatever the punishment should be, it should be a fine levied directly on Sterling, and not a punishment on the players (i.e., forfeiture of future draft picks, etc.)
While we might ask players to take a stand---and I'm sure some high profile players will---it's a very difficult position to put them in for them to be asked to boycott (lose money), forfeit (lose money and set back their basketball careers), not want to play for the Clippers (which would either make turn the Clippers into a team of non-minorities willing to tolerate Sterling's racism, and also make basketball players have less opportunities by limiting the already limited amount of roster spots available - i.e. jobs), or make a symbolic gesture against their owner and boss (risking contract extensions for anyone but the biggest star players). However, the high-profile players, like Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan can and should organize a symbolic action in defiance of Donald Sterling to encourage the groundswell of popular opinion necessary to force Sterling to publicly apologize, step down, sell, or some other appropriate course of action.
Chris Paul is in a unique position as leader of the players association, but it's unfair for him to have to focus on something like this in the midst of an important playoff series. However, those are the realities of life. Despite the bad blood between the Clippers and Warriors, I'm sure that Doc Rivers, Mark Jackson, and their respective players would be more than happy to cooperate to denounce Sterling's action by doing something like delaying the start of the game, wearing anti-racism patches or insignias on their jerseys, or demanding a public apology from Sterling in order for the game to begin. If both teams were to cooperate on something like this, it would force the league to do something. And, in order to protect the image and profitability of the league, they would certainly do whatever they had to do to Sterling in order to make this awesome playoff series go on. The winner of the other side of the bracket needs an opponent, and they aren't just going to let them go on with a bye if these two teams refuse to play.
Some options are as follows for the players/coaches, and should be led and organized by the prominent players:
1. Immediately file a (possibly, class-action) employment discrimination lawsuit on behalf of the NBA Players Association against Donald Sterling for creating a hostile work environment and a litany of other offenses. This wouldn't require much effort from Chris Paul and he could have legal counsel do it all, file something preliminary for the signaling effect, and continue pursuing the litigation after the playoffs. The NBA should also be named as a defendant in this lawsuit in order to force their hand.
While I haven't dug into the mechanics of how this would go down, I'm almost certain that it could happen in at least some productive fashion. At very least, it's a legal strategy that forces the NBA to take action on what it should have taken action on decades ago. Any kind of retaliation (not extending contracts, defaming them, docking them pay) by Sterling against players would be a serious violation of employment discrimination law. (An interesting thing to note, depending on how this recording was actually obtained, is its admissibility as evidence in a court proceeding.
This evidentiary issue would be a non-issue if Sterling tries to issue some kind of public acknowledgement and/or apology, which I'm sure his PR people and the rest of the Clippers organization will highly recommend he do...better consult with counsel about that first, Donald.) It's also possible that the CBA prevents such a suit, but there are almost certainly ways around that, and the CBA probably includes an arbitration clause under which Sterling would almost certainly lose in front of a neutral arbitrator. The CBA, however, might not apply if there is some kind of antitrust related action or really weird incarnation of a shareholder derivative suit or fiduciary duty suit initiated the rest of the owners of the NBA. It's pretty uncharted territory because of the "acceptable monopoly" status of major sports leagues in the United States and the associate anti-trust exemptions, to say the least, but it should definitely be tested. Sterling would almost certainly countersue claiming anti-trust violations, but it wouldn't seem like he'd have much sympathy from any judge, jury, or the public. The suit and the publicity would probably have such a negative spillover effect on his other business ventures that he'd voluntarily settle.
2. Engage in multiple symbolic gestures against Sterling, organized by players and coaches from both teams. Doc Rivers and Mark Jackson have the media clout, respect, and personality to be able to pull this type of thing off. Symbolic gestures would include: delaying the start of the game, refusing to take the floor until a public apology (in the arena) was issued by Sterling (should he choose to attend the game), wearing anti-racism patches on their jerseys, and wearing a symbolic article of clothing or accessory. If both coaches could wear something like this, or players/coaches could give a speech to the crowd before a game, that would also be highly public and highly effective. This might be an area where the NBA can look to the anti-racism campaigns of European soccer teams for some inspiration.
Also, I'm sure there are owners out there like Mark Cuban that can come out and denounce Sterling and demand action. I'm sure there are already a couple who have (or at least, I hope that is the case). Billionaires, as you can see, aren't scared of voicing their opinions loudly and publicly. Guys like Cuban are great for the NBA because they'll tell it like it is. Time to lead the charge, Mark.
It sucks that Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Doc Rivers, Magic Johnson, and other guys are in this super awkward position, but there couldn't be a more likable and accomplished group to lead the charge against Sterling.
Griffin, an affable superhero, and his sidekick should take action immediately. Having the team collectively "do the Blake face" to show their disapproval for Sterling would be hilarious, but not enough.
***
Update: Doc Rivers' reaction is totally expected and understandable because Sterling's behavior shouldn't get in the way of these players and coaches' aspirations. However, there's still room for some symbolic behavior that will go a long way. DeAndre Jordan and Doc Rivers have done a good job in sending the message that this isn't OK, and won't be tolerated. But, there's still much more to be done. A show of solidarity from Mark Jackson and the Warriors organizations would be terrific to see. Others players have stepped up as well, and should be commended for it. Kobe would be a great person to lead the charge to kick Sterling out of Staples once and for all - Kobe is very poised, intelligent, and immensely respected. He also happens to be able to lay claim to the shared Staples Center as "his house" (continuing the legacies of several incredible Lakers teams before hime, including Magic's Showtime Lakers) without pissing too many people off.
LeBron, as the best player and highest profile player in the league, said there's no room for Donald Sterling or people like him in the NBA. Pretty strong condemnation in a sea of fairly tepid and measured reactions today:
I couldn't play for him
— Kobe Bryant (@kobebryant) April 26, 2014
LeBron, as the best player and highest profile player in the league, said there's no room for Donald Sterling or people like him in the NBA. Pretty strong condemnation in a sea of fairly tepid and measured reactions today:
LeBron James -- If Donald Sterling Owned the Heat ... I Might Sit Out the Playoffs http://t.co/XEI7SRuraD
— TMZ (@TMZ) April 26, 2014
See Doc's comments here (because I imagine the team will not be commenting as Doc explains):
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Great Tribute to Craig Sager - Get Well, Soon!
The TNT and ESPN/ABC broadcasting teams, along with several players, have epitomized class in dealing with the unfortunate and sad news about Craig Sager's illness. The latest is that he will be in the hospital undergoing treatment for leukemia for at least four weeks. He first felt ill reporting a Mavs-Spurs game two weeks ago, and consulted with the Mavs team doctors who sent him to the hospital.
Sager has been a great, tenacious reporter for decades and everyone has had their fair share of fun with his colorful, wild outfits (even people taking selfies with him passed out in hotel lobbies). The usually soft-spoken (at least to the media) Kevin Garnett had this to say to Sager a few years ago:
However, Sager's outfits are a metaphor for his effusive personality and his career of fierce reporting. He's truly made his mark.
Even the tight-lipped Popovich, who barely gives Sager and others three words in a normal regular season in-game interview, spoke directly to Sager during a sideline interview with Craig Sager, Jr. during the playoffs. From such a great coach and man like Popovich, this is the ultimate gesture of respect and admiration.
Get well soon, Craig.
Sager has been a great, tenacious reporter for decades and everyone has had their fair share of fun with his colorful, wild outfits (even people taking selfies with him passed out in hotel lobbies). The usually soft-spoken (at least to the media) Kevin Garnett had this to say to Sager a few years ago:
However, Sager's outfits are a metaphor for his effusive personality and his career of fierce reporting. He's truly made his mark.
Even the tight-lipped Popovich, who barely gives Sager and others three words in a normal regular season in-game interview, spoke directly to Sager during a sideline interview with Craig Sager, Jr. during the playoffs. From such a great coach and man like Popovich, this is the ultimate gesture of respect and admiration.
Get well soon, Craig.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Heat Three-Peat Preview: A Healthy Wade
There's a lot of talk around the league about the Heat looking (and performing) the worst of any of their four seasons together in the Big Three era. While it's probably true, the Heat area also the healthiest they've ever been going into the playoffs with the most robust lineup they've ever had. In their first year together, the critical players were fully healthy (with the exception of Bosh and Haslem) down the stretch, but Mike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Jamal Magliore, and Joel Anthony were all getting big time minutes. To boot, Bibby shot the worst from 3PT of not only his career, but also the history of the playoffs. In the other two runs, Miller, Bosh, Wade, and other role players had nagging injuries or worse. This made the Heat have to pull out heroic performances from LeBron and Wade as well as standout role player performances from Battier and Miller at crucial times. Chalmers, as always, shined in the spotlight.
This year, despite the lack of continuity and rhythm, the team is completely healthy. Bosh and LeBron logged some pretty heavy miles down the stretch, but have now had more than a full week off before the beginning of the series. Bosh is going to get worn down a little in the first round against Charlotte, but no one is really going to tax LeBron unless he's asked to guard Jefferson in crunch time. Wade, barring any setbacks, is looking spry and ready to dominate like he did against the Mavericks in 2006 and 2011, and in key games against the Pacers two years ago.
I have no doubt that the Heat find their rhythm after the first series. The East is the worst it has been in decades and the Heat are pulling the Bobcats and then probably the Nets (or if they're lucky, Toronto). They'll have home court in both of these series. If Toronto manages to beat the Nets, the Heat will have a good chance of sweeping both opponents in the first two rounds and being fully rested for their matchup against Indiana (assuming they don't continue their free fall in the playoffs.) Oh, and anyone who thinks the Nets are really a threat because they won 4 games by less than 3 points, you're nuts. Remember when the Bulls and Celtics clobbered the Heat in the 2011 regular season...well, they were much better teams and the Heat dismantled them each in 5 games.
As much as the Heat-Pacers rivalry has been hyped up, the Pacers truly aren't the threat to the Heat that the media makes them out to be. When Lance Stephenson is your best answer to a healthy Dwyane Wade, and Roy Hibbert can't dominate the undersized Udonis Haslem, you're going to have some serious problems.
The West is more concerning though. Miami won't have home court against any team that's likely to make it out of that conference. Every team except one team concerns me - the Oklahoma City Thunder. Miami made short work of them two years ago in the Finals and that was when they had Harden, who's now one of the best players in the league. Durant can't win the series on his own (much like the Lebron-era Cavaliers), and Westbrook will take just enough of Durant's shots to complicate things even further. They can't exploit the Heat's size weakness because Ibaka's offensive skills haven't developed enough and Kendrick Perkins is simply a big dumpster parked at the rim.
As crazy as it sounds, I'd probably prefer to see Miami play the Spurs rather than the Clippers. The Clippers, if they can pull it together, are young, athletic, great shooters, and exploit the Heat at point guard and center (their two biggest weaknesses). Jamal Crawford can make even the best defense in the league useless with his crazy shotmaking ability, and DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin might just clip the wings off of the Birdman. On the other hand, the Spurs are older and Manu Ginobili looked like he needed to be carted off in a wheelchair after each game in last year's finals. While Ray Allen won't always be there to bail us out, Tony Parker also wont' make scoop shots from 16 feet away from the basket while on the ground and smothered by LeBron. Danny Green won't shoot like the 2011 Mavericks again either. And, Marco Belinelli is overrated.
Remember, with all the talk about the burden being on LeBron, we haven't seen a full-strength Wade in the Big Three era playoffs in full takeover mode. He had the best Finals performance ever, far better than anything Jordan ever did in the Finals, let alone the Playoffs. If he's healthy, the Heat win. It's that simple. He'll be extra motivated to make sure LeBron doesn't even have the thought of leaving this summer. As much as he seems to like the ridiculous nickname "Three," he's going to start making it "Four."
This year, despite the lack of continuity and rhythm, the team is completely healthy. Bosh and LeBron logged some pretty heavy miles down the stretch, but have now had more than a full week off before the beginning of the series. Bosh is going to get worn down a little in the first round against Charlotte, but no one is really going to tax LeBron unless he's asked to guard Jefferson in crunch time. Wade, barring any setbacks, is looking spry and ready to dominate like he did against the Mavericks in 2006 and 2011, and in key games against the Pacers two years ago.
I have no doubt that the Heat find their rhythm after the first series. The East is the worst it has been in decades and the Heat are pulling the Bobcats and then probably the Nets (or if they're lucky, Toronto). They'll have home court in both of these series. If Toronto manages to beat the Nets, the Heat will have a good chance of sweeping both opponents in the first two rounds and being fully rested for their matchup against Indiana (assuming they don't continue their free fall in the playoffs.) Oh, and anyone who thinks the Nets are really a threat because they won 4 games by less than 3 points, you're nuts. Remember when the Bulls and Celtics clobbered the Heat in the 2011 regular season...well, they were much better teams and the Heat dismantled them each in 5 games.
As much as the Heat-Pacers rivalry has been hyped up, the Pacers truly aren't the threat to the Heat that the media makes them out to be. When Lance Stephenson is your best answer to a healthy Dwyane Wade, and Roy Hibbert can't dominate the undersized Udonis Haslem, you're going to have some serious problems.
The West is more concerning though. Miami won't have home court against any team that's likely to make it out of that conference. Every team except one team concerns me - the Oklahoma City Thunder. Miami made short work of them two years ago in the Finals and that was when they had Harden, who's now one of the best players in the league. Durant can't win the series on his own (much like the Lebron-era Cavaliers), and Westbrook will take just enough of Durant's shots to complicate things even further. They can't exploit the Heat's size weakness because Ibaka's offensive skills haven't developed enough and Kendrick Perkins is simply a big dumpster parked at the rim.
As crazy as it sounds, I'd probably prefer to see Miami play the Spurs rather than the Clippers. The Clippers, if they can pull it together, are young, athletic, great shooters, and exploit the Heat at point guard and center (their two biggest weaknesses). Jamal Crawford can make even the best defense in the league useless with his crazy shotmaking ability, and DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin might just clip the wings off of the Birdman. On the other hand, the Spurs are older and Manu Ginobili looked like he needed to be carted off in a wheelchair after each game in last year's finals. While Ray Allen won't always be there to bail us out, Tony Parker also wont' make scoop shots from 16 feet away from the basket while on the ground and smothered by LeBron. Danny Green won't shoot like the 2011 Mavericks again either. And, Marco Belinelli is overrated.
Remember, with all the talk about the burden being on LeBron, we haven't seen a full-strength Wade in the Big Three era playoffs in full takeover mode. He had the best Finals performance ever, far better than anything Jordan ever did in the Finals, let alone the Playoffs. If he's healthy, the Heat win. It's that simple. He'll be extra motivated to make sure LeBron doesn't even have the thought of leaving this summer. As much as he seems to like the ridiculous nickname "Three," he's going to start making it "Four."
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